California Will Need a Significant Amount of Precipitation to Pull Out of Drought

Posted: February 16, 2022 10:56 pm

The winter got off to a promising start in California with a consistent parade of storms in October, November, and December. After a series of atmospheric rivers and winter storms, the state had been the beneficiary of an abundance of moisture. Experts were hoping that this precipitation would help to alleviate the current drought conditions throughout the state.

However, the lack of moisture since last fall has caused drought conditions to worsen in some areas. Just how much rain does the Golden State need to alleviate this drought?

Majority of California Under Severe Drought

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, approximately two-thirds of the state is under a severe drought. These conditions are already worrying officials about the potential of another devastating wildfire season on the horizon.

There is no doubt that things are drying up again in California. The U.C. Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab has gone over 32 days without measurable snowfall, breaking the previous record of 31 days.

As of the middle of February, the lab is reporting just 73% of its normal snowfall for the year. This translates to slightly over 5 feet of existing snow on the ground. While this may seem like a lot, it is not enough to provide a significant snowpack heading into the spring. The problem is getting worse with every passing day of no new snowfall.

How Much Moisture is Needed?

The region would need at least 8 more feet of snow to bring it up to normal levels. The first shot of making that up will come early this week when a system moves into the Sierra Nevada from the Pacific Northwest. While the precipitation will fall as rain in the lower elevations, the higher terrains can get in on some snow action.

Another shot of precipitation is likely to transpire next week, bringing the potential of 6 to 12 inches of new snow. The long-range forecast shows a consistent pattern of rain and snow through March.

The northern and central portion of the state are forecast to see precipitation levels that are slightly above normal. Meanwhile, temperature readings may be slightly below average for March.

However, a dome of high pressure may set up over the state by the end of March, bringing a return to the dry and mild weather pattern.

While the forecast looks more optimistic over the next six weeks, the state is going to need a good amount of precipitation to bring itself out of the drought.

All of the six major reservoirs in California are far below capacity. For instance, Northern California’s Lake Oroville is only at 46% capacity as of last week. This number is far below the 78% it is usually at by this time of the year.

Castaic Lake in the southern part of the state is the highest of the six reservoirs at 59%. This compares to a normal reading of 74%.

Experts are expressing a bit of optimism that it is not too late for the state to make up some of the ground lost during the exceptionally dry month of January. However, it will take another consistent parade of storms to reverse this damage.

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