Cooler Temperatures and Soggy Conditions the Story for the Southeast

Posted: August 4, 2021 12:52 pm

Rain Will Start to Inch North by End of Week

Wet weather is set to move in throughout the southeastern and south-central parts of the US as two air masses merge together to create a perfect storm of persistent rain.

Headed to the Beach? Check the Forecast

Heading to the beach this week for a summer getaway before school starts back up? If your beach vacation includes the coasts of North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, or Mississippi, you may want to bring a large umbrella. A significant amount of rain is going to bring heavy rains to the region off and on through at least Friday.

Clash of Two Air Masses Responsible for Rainy Weather Pattern

The root cause of the persistent rain is the clash of two distinct air masses. A cool front dropped into the South on Sunday, bringing a drop in the mercury to a region that had been baking in the sun. This front has stalled out along the Southeastern coast of the US, keeping temperatures down below normal for this time of year.

While this cooling is a welcome relief for most people, the front is beginning to merge with an area of high pressure located near Bermuda. As these two air masses continue to inch closer together, moisture is expected to funnel up from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. This influx of moist air from two directions will create a significant area of rain across a wide region in the coming days.

The stalled front will also deliver the possibility of severe weather, flash flooding, and rough surf conditions for swimmers and boaters. Although a large region is at risk for rain, the most consistent rainfall will occur in an area stretching from the Florida Panhandle up to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This rain will continue to ramp up on Wednesday and is expected to affect the coast through the next several days.

Rainfall Amounts

Depending on the location, daily rainfall amounts will measure up to two inches. Up to 12 inches may fall over a period of three days along the North Carolina coast, the region most likely to see the highest amount of precipitation.

The good news is that this area of the Southeast can probably withstand this amount of rain. Most areas have seen anywhere from 80% – 120% of average rainfall for the month of July. This means that the ground is not too oversaturated at this point.

However, forecasters caution that there is still the risk of flash flooding for these areas. This is particularly true for urban areas that are known for flooding, such as Charleston, South Carolina.

Chance of Severe Weather

In addition to the risk of flash flooding, the Southeast is also under the threat of severe weather for the remainder of the week. Numerous storm systems are predicted to set up along the front, moving in a northeasterly direction. These systems will deliver thunderstorms and strong winds to the coastal areas. Because the systems are expected to move along the coast, beachgoers need to be prepared for the possibility of rough seas, lightning strikes, waterspouts, and gusty winds.

As is usual with this time of the year, the heaviest rains and thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the late afternoon and early evening hours, forcing beach visitors indoors during the hottest time of the day. Motorists also need to be cautious when heading out onto the roadways if a storm is brewing.

How Far Will the Moisture Stretch?

While the moisture will stay in the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday, the showers are predicted to move to the north by the end of the week. A southward movement of the jet stream in the Midwest beginning on Wednesday will cause the steering winds to suck moisture up into the Northeast, increasing the chances of rainfall in this region to close out the week.

What About the Atlantic?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has its eyes set on a tropical wave currently spinning thousands of miles to the southeast of the US. This wave is forecast to continue its trek to the west later in the week. However, it is likely to encounter a mass of dry air and dust that will inhibit its development. High winds will also serve to break up the intensity of this tropical wave.

While it is mostly quiet in the Atlantic basin to start the month of August, this region of the world is just weeks away from hitting peak hurricane season. Tropical activity generally fires up this time of year as dry air begins to break up and water temperatures reach their highest readings of the year. Hurricane watchers will continue to monitor this area for potential storms.

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