Hurricane Ian Now Major Category 3 Storm Moving Closer to Florida

Posted: September 27, 2022 9:29 pm

What You Can Expect From Strengthening Hurricane Ian

With Cuba in its rearview mirror, Hurricane Ian is moving closer to the western coast of Florida with an anticipated landfall of late Wednesday. Here is the latest on the hurricane.

Image Provided by NOAA

Details of Hurricane Ian

Hurricane Ian is now a major Category 3 hurricane, going through a period of rapid intensification over the last 24 hours. A large stretch of the western coastline is now under a hurricane warning, stretching from Bonita Beach north to Anclote River. Major cities in this warning zone include Tampa and Fort Myers. Approximately 8 million Floridians are now under hurricane warnings.

In addition, the Dry Tortugas chain of islands is also under a hurricane warning. There is also a tropical storm warning in place from the area north of Anclote River to the Suwanee River.

A series of new watches and warnings were also put in place for parts of Georgia and South Carolina. A tropical storm warning has been extended farther north, expanding from Boca Raton, Florida up to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. Lastly, there is a tropical storm watch in place from north of Altamaha Sound to South Carolina’s South Santee River.

What to Expect in Coming Hours

The storm is forecast to continue to intensify throughout the day Tuesday, eventually reaching a Category 4 storm as it churns in the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. While it is still too early to predict with accuracy, most models indicate that Ian will briefly reach the designation of a Category 4 storm before dropping back to a Category 3 hurricane prior to making landfall. A higher amount of wind shear will cause the storm to weaken slightly.

According to the data from the 8 am EDT update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm was packing sustained winds of up to 125 mph as it moved to the north at 12 mph. Ian is currently located about 300 miles south-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.

The center of the storm was spinning about 10 miles to the north-northeast of the city of Pinar del Rio in Cuba. Hurricane-force winds were reaching up to 35 miles from the storm’s eye with the tropical-storm-force winds extending out up to 115 miles.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]

Slight Changes in Storm’s Track

The latest models showed a slight shift to the south in the storm’s track. Although this shift is bad news for areas such as Punta Gorda and Cape Coral, it is good news for the vulnerable Tampa Bay Area. For years, Tampa Bay has dodged the state’s most destructive hurricanes. Will the heavily populated area of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg escape once again? Only time will tell.

Forecasters caution to not read too much into the latest models. It is still possible for the worst of Ian to move to the north and make a direct hit on Tampa. The worst case scenario would be a landfall north of Clearwater as this would trigger the highest water level rise in Tampa Bay. The current forecast is calling for a water level rise of approximately 6 to 10 feet to the south of where the eye comes on shore.

Ian is predicted to bring significant storm surge to areas as far as Jacksonville on the other side of the state. This is because the easterly winds associated with the hurricane will bring the waters of the Atlantic Ocean closer to Florida’s east coast. When combined with the moisture associated with Ian, the water in the St. Johns River in Jacksonville may rapidly rise, triggering mass flooding.

Other areas at risk of urban flooding include Orlando, Ocala, and the retirement community known as The Villages. In addition to Jacksonville, cities on the east coast that could experience flash flooding include Miami, West Palm Beach, and Melbourne. Lastly, the Florida Keys may also see torrential rain and flooding at the hands of the spiral bands coming out of the storm.

Widespread power outages are also a concern with a storm for this magnitude. Winds are predicted to reach up to 100 to 120 mph throughout the west-central parts of the state. The strongest winds will whip around to the northeast of where the storm makes landfall.

Other impacts of this monster include tornadoes and waterspouts. The greatest risk of tornadoes extends across southern Florida, including Fort Myers, Naples, and Miami.

What Will be Next for Ian?

Although the immediate concern for Ian is the impacts to Florida, the effects of this major hurricane will extend far beyond the Sunshine State. The slowly moving nature of this storm is expected to bring heavy rain to the Southeast, including Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. The rain will make its way up into West Virginia and the eastern portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.

The storm will eventually be downgraded to a tropical storm, depression, or rainstorm as it moves through this region. The coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas will be under the threat of storm surge and erosion.

State officials in Florida are warning residents to pay heed to all evacuation notices. A number of areas in Hillsborough, Lee, Pinellas, Pasco, and Manatee counties have been asked to evacuate. In addition, the bulk of personnel are being evacuated from MacDill Air Force Base near Tampa and Key West’s Naval Station.

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