Meteorologists Focused on Eastern Pacific and Potential Tropical Storm

Posted: May 7, 2021 2:18 pm

Time to Start Watching Out for Those Tropical Storms

Here we go again. A potential tropical system is setting up a couple of hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico. Should this develop into a named storm, it will be the first tropical system of what is anticipated to be another busy hurricane season.

Potential Tropical System Details

The disorganized area of low pressure is catching the eye of meteorologists. Although the current chance of tropical depression development is only sitting around 10%, it is still the first potential system to develop this year in the Western Hemisphere. Tropical weather experts will be keeping an eye on the area over the next few days.

Warm ocean waters are pairing with the absence of wind shear to provide conditions conducive to tropical storm development. With an average water temperature of 89 degrees in the region, this is well above the average threshold of 80 degrees that is recognized as being the minimum needed for tropical storm development. Both the warm ocean waters and the lack of wind shear will be in place over this area through at least Monday, making it possible that the storm will take root.

Because the winds swirling above the region will likely steer any storm in a westerly direction, there will not be any major landmasses affected by this potential area of concern.

Atlantic Tropical Storm Season

While this system of low pressure is picking up steam in the Pacific Ocean, the start of the Atlantic tropical storm season is right around the corner. The Atlantic tropical season begins in earnest on June 1, however, the East Pacific tropical season starts on May 15. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) are already debating if the Atlantic tropical season should also officially start on May 15.

The reason for the consideration of a change in dates is because of the influx of early season storms that have formed over the last few years. Last year, both Arthur and Bertha formed before the official beginning of hurricane season.

Defining a Tropical Depression

A tropical depression is defined as a storm that delivers sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Should this current area of concern reach this status, it would carry the distinction of being the first named storm of the 2021 season. The first name on the list for East Pacific storms this year is Andre.

Should the area develop into a named storm on Sunday, it would tie the record for the earliest storm in recorded history to develop in this region. If the storm ignites to a tropical depression by Saturday, it would set a new record. Tropical Storm Adrian currently holds the record for the earliest named storm on record in the Eastern Pacific Ocean Basin, forming on May 9, 2017.

In 2020, Amanda was the first tropical storm to develop in the Eastern Pacific when it brought heavy rain to Central America and southern Mexico on May 31.

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