2022 Hurricane Season Still in Full Gear

Posted: October 31, 2022 9:36 am

While a large portion of the United States is already gearing up for a cold, snowy winter season, tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean continues to be a concern for the southeastern states. Hurricane season lasts until November 30, and every indication is that activity in 2022 will remain strong for the remaining few weeks of the season.

In fact, there are several active systems in the Atlantic right now that are being closely watched because of the heavy rains and strong winds that they are producing. One of these systems is located close to Bermuda. While it previously was forecast to potentially strengthen into a tropical depression or storm, its path is now projected to pass into cooler waters and weaken.

While the storm near Bermuda may fizzle out, the long-range forecast for a storm that is currently in the eastern Caribbean indicates that it could strike the southeastern region of the United States. There is still some uncertainty mixed into the forecast. Specifically, a tropical depression is defined as a low-pressure area that has a maximum sustained wind speed of under 39 miles per hour. A tropical storm, on the other hand, has sustained winds higher than 39 miles per hour. It is not yet certain how strong this system will get as it progresses northwesterly.

Behind that storm, a tropical wave is making its way across the Caribbean. This slow-moving storm has a particularly intense batch of thunderstorms that is currently in the southeastern Caribbean. In this area, atmospheric winds and water temperatures that exceed 80 degrees may set the right conditions for this tropical wave to develop into a significant tropical disturbance.

Development of this wave is expected sometime in the early to middle part of the upcoming week. Even if development does not occur, this storm will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the areas that it passes over. Because its exact path is not yet known, Caribbean islands from the north down to the southern regions should be prepared. If the system organizes, it is likely to track northward through the Greater Antilles, Puerto Rico and Cuba. If minimal development occurs, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao and northern South America may be affected. For both scenarios, impacts should be expected by the end of the upcoming week. These impacts include strong, potentially damaging winds and heavy rains.

Looking further ahead, there is a possibility in the long-term forecast for the storm system to reach Central America. If this happens, those areas may experience heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and damaging winds. Notably, this storm is not expected to reach the United States. Its path may be inhibited by a high-pressure system and strong winds that are expected to develop over the southeastern United States. However, if these conditions do not develop, the storm’s forecasted path may change.

Weather forecasters have indicated that conditions in the Caribbean are ripe for the development of additional tropical waves that may pass through the area within the next few weeks. Specifically, water temperatures in the area will remain above 80 degrees during that period of time. The long-term forecast indicates a strong likelihood for disturbances to develop. In addition, the weather pattern may cause systems that develop north to move southward and enter areas with warmer waters.

The southeastern United States should be observant of potential developments in the tropics. Florida may be particularly vulnerable to potential storms, but all states in the region may be at risk. One reason for this is because of the high-pressure system that is expected to form near Bermuda within the week coupled with a low dip in the jet stream across the western U.S.

However, the specific areas that may be impacted by a potential tropical development will depend on where storm activity is present. Storms that develop east of the Caribbean are more likely to impact the eastern Caribbean nations than Florida. However, storms that develop in the western Caribbean are more likely to reach Cuba and South Florida. Storm development in the eastern Caribbean may impact the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Forecasters project that tropical development is more likely in the first two weeks of November in the Atlantic Ocean close to the southeastern U.S. While winds that run westerly across the United States often push developments in this area away from the coast, the risk of landfall remains present.

Throughout the 2022 hurricane season thus far, activity has been rather light with only 11 names storms. The average through the end of October is 13 named storms. The tropical activity for 2022 has included two tropical depressions and six tropical storms. Two hurricanes, which both developed in the Caribbean and reached Category 4 strength, also developed. These storms are Fiona and Ian. Ian had the greatest impact on the United States with sustained winds of 155 miles per hour. It made landfall over the southwestern coast of Florida and caused property damage and deaths.

In the average hurricane system, there are 14 named tropical systems. This includes three major hurricanes and four hurricanes that are classified as Category 1 or 2. While the 2022 hurricane system has been light thus far, conditions are ripe for the development of new systems. If the next few tropical systems are named, they will be Lisa, Martin and Nicole. Those who are in areas of concern should pay attention to tropical activity throughout the month of November.

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