Researchers Struggle to Predict Unpredictable U.S. Weather

Posted: October 13, 2022 4:24 pm

Increasingly unpredictable weather makes things difficult for scientists, outdoor workers, athletes, coaches and regular people without an overriding concern for weather patterns. Most people in the modern world often ignore the weather because there’s no way to control it. Even preparation isn’t always possible when the weather can change unexpectedly, and the United States has plenty of wild, unpredictable weather.

For example, being on the line between two weather fronts can result in multiple weather changes in just minutes, and the pattern can continue for several days as the fronts fight for dominance. Global warming initiates climate changes that might make colder weather more dominant in your area than usual. Months of drought can end in torrential rainfalls that quickly flood areas with dry, hardened ground where water backs up without soaking into the ground.

In the United States, recognizing that you’re in an area of unpredictable weather can help your planning and minimize the inconveniences of surprise weather changes. According to information published at blog.education.nationalgeographic.org, you can prepare for predictable unpredictable weather.

Recognizing key cities and states where rapid weather changes are common can help you prepare for them. Denver, Boston, Chicago and Bismarck are known for unpredictable weather, which includes terrible floods, extreme blizzards and wild tornadoes that destroy one house and leave the surrounding homes unscathed. That’s why weather forecasts are updated many times each day, and extreme weather alerts are posted by Google’s email landing page, weather apps and local municipalities.

How Scientists Rank Areas for the Most Unpredictable Weather

Meteorologists analyze past weather patterns to determine a baseline of typical weather, and everyone knows that exceptions are almost the rule in most cities. Every year, the weather is updated by new record highs and record lows, but broader patterns do tend to follow forecasts that often hold for several days of the same type of weather. However, weather can actually change from hour to hour in any location given the right conditions.

Comparing daily weather patterns focuses on areas where the daily forecast differs substantially from predicted weather at the relevant time of year. These calculations are based on 20 to 30 years of weather data that establish baseline expectations. Accordingly, meteorologists rank the upper midwest portion of the United States as the area of the most unpredictable weather.

Cities that make it hard to predict the weather from one day to the next include Great Falls, Montana; Rapid City, North Dakota and Houghton, Michigan. The factors used to predict unpredictable weather include ,the following:

• High temperatures
• Low temperatures
• Average temperatures
• Precipitation amount
• Form of precipitation: rain, snow, ice or hail
• Absence or presence of any precipitation
• Severe weather of any kind
• Type of severe weather event
• Rain or snow level in inches
• Humidity
• Cloud Cover
• Wind speed

Other cities with highly unpredictable weather include New Orleans, Louisiana; Lubbock, Texas; Fairbanks, Alaska; Denver, Texas; Kansas City, Missouri; Saint Louis, Missouri; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and Brownsville Texas. Areas that are especially prone to unpredictable severe weather include the cities lined up along Tornado Alley, which is an unofficial designation applied to parts of Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Nebraska where tornadoes most frequently occur.

The cyclonic rotation and relatively calm center or these “twisters” often develop in flat areas after severe thunderstorms in spring or fall or as offshoots from hurricanes. Tornadoes can happen almost anywhere, but the most common areas include Tornado Alley, western Ohio, Eastern Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, northern Kentucky and southern areas of Wisconsin and Michigan. Gulf Coast states commonly experience hurricanes when a hurricane makes landfall.

Factors that Make Weather Unpredictable

The effects of climate change have become the most common causes of weather unpredictability. Hurricanes have become more intense before making landfall, and they move more slowly because of global warming. They also hold more water, and that water falls to earth over a longer period of time, which causes greater flooding than hurricanes of past decades.

According in information posted at epa.gov, global warming has occurred because of greenhouse gas emissions like carbon dioxide, methane leaks and all types of industrial practices. Natural processes like volcanic eruptions can also increase the temperatures in some areas, but scientists have concluded that the recent rate of change has increased too much to be explained by natural causes. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have risen to concentrations that are higher than any in the past 800,000 years.

The Role of Greenhouse Gasses in Weather Unpredictability

That makes greenhouse gasses the most obvious culprit for steadily rising temperature averages. Scientists have found that these gasses combine to make smog, which traps heat in cities and raises temperatures. Smog also generates multiple health risks.

Although studies show that climate varies greatly because of natural processes, global warming can’t be blamed on climate swings. Scientists have been able to get information on temperatures for many thousands of years based on ocean sediments, glacier growth and melt-back, tree rings, pollen remains and ice cores. The evidence proves that recent warming trends exceed anything that’s happened for almost a million years.

Greenhouse gasses have increased during recent years based on many industrial processes, natural gas mining and pipeline leaks. Methane is one of the main ingredients of natural gas, and pipeline managers can legally discharge certain percentages of the gas into the air without serious consequences. There is no rigorous monitoring required by the government to confirm voluntary revelations of how much gas gets discharged.

Greenhouse gas emissions are caused by human activities. People release 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide each year, which is 40% more than the natural processes of breathing caused before the Industrial Revolution. The atmosphere now has 414 parts-per-million of carbon dioxide, which compares to 280 ppm in pre-industrial times.

These gasses are primarily responsible for global warming, which increases extreme weather events like record-setting flash floods, monster waves from storm surges, more Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes and long-term drought conditions.

How to Prepare for Unpredictable Weather

Recent weather disasters have increased in numbers, intensity and damage caused. According to pewresearch.org, most Americans have experienced some kind of extreme weather in the past year. Weather is a great equalizer and affects everyone regardless of wealth, social standing and demographic profile.

The most common weather complaint is extreme flooding according to 40% of survey respondents. Unusually intense periods of extremely hot weather — over 100 degrees Fahrenheit — have been reported by 42% of respondents around the country in recent years, which includes the Pacific Northwest known for cool summer temperatures. 31% of respondents complain of drought, wildfires or water shortages and 16% complain about higher sea levels or erosion of prime beach areas.

Preparing for unpredictable weather requires planning, monitoring weather conditions and getting necessary tools to fight weather extremes.

Planning a Strategy for Unpredictable Weather Extremes

Make a strategic plan for dealing with possible weather extremes. First, educate each family member about what they should do. Post a list of emergency numbers where everyone can read it easily. Prepare for extreme weather like thunderstorms by carrying an umbrella in your vehicle or with you when you know you’ll be out and about for an extended time.

Dress warmly in layers if cold weather, snow and ice become threats. Make sure your car tires all-weather tires or even snow chains in extreme weather situations. Make yourself aware of any emergency plans where you work or at your child’s school — like evacuation plans and routes and emergency closings during dangerous weather events.

Trim trees and hedges near your home and tree branches that overhang the area where you park. During the summer, shade is nice, but dangerous branches could become threats to your health and property during bouts of extreme weather. One of the most common injuries suffered during extreme weather is a close encounter with a tree branch.

If you live in low-lying or coastal areas, you could face a range of coastal hazards that include being stranded. You can best prepare by making sure that you always have a first aid kit, bottled water, non-perishable foods items and even life vests. You should also carry signaling devices like flares or emergency beacons.

At home, you should develop a more comprehensive survival kit that includes water, non-perishable foods, one or more flashlights, batteries, and a portable charger.

Monitoring Weather and Emergency Reports

It’s not possible to monitor the weather constantly on the off-chance that unpredictable weather will occur, but it makes sense to consult your weather app regularly and check your phone for updates if you’re planning an outdoor event or going for a long walk or jog. You might consider more intensive monitoring if your business depends on the weather.

Essential Tools for Weather Extremes

Useful tools are those that serve multiple functions, and you might include the following items for weather preparedness:

• Weather-appropriate boots and rainwear
• Well-stocked first aid kit
• Multitool with a blade, screwdriver, bottle opener, scissors, needle-nose pliers, etc.
• Portable generator and fuel for surviving without power
• Clips and boards to protect windows and shutters during a severe storm
• Battery pack to keep electronics charged
• A powerful flashlight and charged batteries
• Extra batteries for all electronics
• Lantern that lasts through the night
• Reliable can opener for non-perishable food

Preparedness Doesn’t Take that Long

Getting prepared for weather extremes takes an investment of time and some cash if you have made no advance preparations, but once done, it’s easy to check and update your items as needed. It’s better to be prepared and never need the items than forced to handle an extreme weather event.

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