How Long Will the Atlantic Basin Remain Quiet?

Posted: November 14, 2022 12:22 pm

Active Storm Track Could Raise Flooding Risk in Areas Just Hit by Nicole

The arrival of Hurricane Nicole last week on U.S. soil was a reminder that the tropical season is far from over. This is typically the time of the year when the Atlantic basin begins to calm down as it approaches the official end of hurricane season on November 30. However, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are warning that there is enough moisture floating in the tropics to keep the risk of new developments in place. Here is what you need to know heading into the end of the season.

Looking at the Odds of Further Tropical Development in the Atlantic

This is also the time of the year when tropical features tend to crop up in the Gulf of Mexico and across the Caribbean Sea. This is because this is the part of the basin that offers the warmest water temperatures in November. But forecasters are predicting that is not where the greatest chance of development will take place over the next few weeks. A zone of strong vertical wind shear setting up over the astern portions of the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico will hinder development in this part of the basin over the next several days.

That said, hurricane experts are cautioning that the waters are still warm enough to support storm development if this wind shear drops off. The highest chance of a new storm firing up would happen if a front stalls outs in the Gulf of Mexico or along the Atlantic Seaboard. It is not unusual for a storm with subtropical characteristics to form if a front slows down in this part of the basin.

Record-Setting Hurricane Nicole

Hurricane Nicole was certainly a storm for the record books. It is highly unusual for hurricanes to make landfall along the east coast of Florida during the month of November. In fact, Nicole now carries the distinction of being the only storm in recorded history to come onshore in this part of the Sunshine State after November 4. While Hurricane Kate crashed into the shores on November 21, its landfall location was along the Gulf Coast in the Florida Panhandle.

Most hurricanes that form in November tend to make landfall in Central America. Developments of this magnitude that impact the U.S. in November are far more likely to not grow beyond the status of a tropical storm.

Flooding Risk High in Areas Impacted by Nicole

Despite the low risk of a named storm forming in the next week, forecasters are warning that there is still a good chance of flooding along the East Coast and in the Southeast in areas that were impacted by Nicole. A storm that is now firing up in the south-central portions of the U.S. is forecast to move into the eastern part of the country as the week continues.

The movement of this storm will translate to a wide band of snow showers stretching from central Texas into the coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. While areas to the north will see snow, the precipitation will fall as rain along the Gulf Coast. It is not out of the question for some parts of the Gulf Coast to see 1 – 2 inches of rain out of this weather maker. The good news is that this area did not experience the impacts of Nicole last week, meaning that it will not likely be dealing with flooding concerns.

This is not the case for areas of the Southeast and the central Appalachians, two parts of the country that were under Nicole’s wrath for days last week. The area most susceptible to flooding will be in the zone stretching from northern Georgia into West Virginia. As little as 1 – 2 inches of new rain could trigger flooding across the saturated ground.

The long-range forecast demonstrates an active storm track across the southern tier of the country by the end of the week. This will increase the risk of flooding, particularly if more moisture flows up from the Gulf.

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