Meteorological Spring Off to a Cold and Wet Start

Posted: March 6, 2023 1:00 pm

Now the meteorological winter is in the rearview mirror, weather experts can confidently say that it was one of the warmest on records for the eastern half of the U.S. Here is a look back at the last few months as well as a look ahead and what March and the meteorological spring may bring to the country.

Temperatures Hover Above Normal for Much of Eastern U.S. This Winter

It was a mild winter for much of the U.S. Other than a brief Arctic outbreak around the holidays, the eastern half of the country saw temperature readings that trended well above normal. A northward bulge in the jet stream out East brought up warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico throughout the winter. It was the opposite out West where a southward dip brought down cooler air from Canada.

This jet stream pattern was also responsible for the persistent snow drought in the Northeast, the central and southern Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley. While there was plenty of rain in place in these regions this winter, a lack of cold air kept the moisture from falling as snow.

Despite the frigid air that brought 2022 to a close, the bulk of the meteorological winter saw the mercury settle well above average. For instance, the temperature in New York City in January was 9.8 degrees warmer than the historical average. Even with the Arctic air outbreak factored in, temperatures from December 1 through February 28 hovered between 3 to 6 degrees above normal for the eastern U.S.

Change is on the Way?

However, a flip in the jet stream pattern could translate to colder than average temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. in March. The colder air will feel even more unseasonable because of the warmer than average readings this winter. In other words, the warmer than usual winter is not necessarily going to signal a warmer than average spring.

Forecasters are predicting that the jet stream is going to dip down from Canada into the eastern part of the country, sending cold air spilling into the Midwest and the Northeast. In addition, the Greenland blocking pattern is also expected to strengthen in the coming weeks, ushering in colder air from the north.

A weakening polar vortex will also allow cold air to slip in from the Arctic Circle farther southward. This weakening was to blame for the winter storm that hit the West Coast last week.

More Snow a Possibility This Spring

The change in the polar vortex strength could also set the stage for March snow for the Midwest, Northeast, and beyond. It has been a bleak year for snow for many of the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor. Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. have measured less than an inch of snow this winter season. New York City has only seen 2.2 inches of snow, far below the historical average of nearly 25 inches by early March.

While the snow drought has not been quite as severe in the Midwest, it has still been a relatively dry winter. Chicago has measured 17.9 inches of snow through March 4, translating to about 55% of the historical average by this point in the season. The predicted change in the jet stream pattern could give this part of the country an additional chance to pick up snow before it begins to warm up.

Warmer than average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean will provide the energy needed to fuel some lingering winter storms. This is the time of the year when you can expect to see the development of nor’easters along the East Coast. This threat could stick around through early April, meaning that it could be a spring season with wintry conditions.

Forecasters are also warning of the potential of more lake-effect snow events in the coming weeks. The Great Lakes did not see the typically cold temperatures that lead to the formation of ice. This lack of ice means that there will be a greater chance of lake-effect snow when cold air moves down through Canada in the early spring season.

Gardeners should also be prepared for late-season frosts and freezes increasing the risk of damage to flowering plants.

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