Mixed Bag of Weather Predicted for Canada This Summer

Posted: May 26, 2023 10:00 am

It has already felt like summer throughout much of western Canada as wildfires rage across the region and record high temperatures infiltrate many communities. What does the long-range summer forecast look like for Canada this year?

Like the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, Canada will be under the influence of a shift from the La Niña climate phase to the upcoming El Niño pattern. This means that the summer season will look a bit different than the last three years when La Niña was in charge.

Here are all of the details about what you can expect in the coming months.

Western Canada to Continue to See Hot and Dry Pattern

The provinces of British Columbia and Alberta are forecast to continue to see warmer and drier conditions than average. A stubborn ridge of high pressure has kicked off the summer season early in this corner of North America, bringing down daily record highs for many areas.

For instance, Edmonton, Alberta has seen temperatures run about 10 degrees above average for May.

The lack of moisture in some parts of British Columbia and Alberta has created drought conditions that have increased the risk of wildfires. According to the North American Drought Monitor, almost 85% of Alberta is under the designation of having abnormally dry conditions.

As a result, over 3.9 million acres have burned in Alberta and British Columbia already this season. This has translated to the second-worst fire season on record for Alberta by this point in the season.

High pressure is expected to remain the pervasive pattern in western Canada this summer, creating dry and warm weather. Experts are in alignment that both Alberta and British Columbia will likely see temperatures that trend warmer than the historical average throughout the summer.

In addition, the guiding area of high pressure will send the bulk of the Pacific storm activity up toward Alaska. This movement will leave these two provinces drier than usual, spelling potential issues for wildfire season.

Lastly, the resulting smoke from these fires will also likely cause poor air quality on numerous occasions in the coming months. You will want to download an air quality index report app on your phone if your summer plans call for outdoor activities in this part of Canada.

It is particularly important for vulnerable individuals to stay abreast of these levels before heading outside when smoke is in the air.

Stormy in the Canadian Rockies

While most of the western portions of Canada will be dealing with dry weather, thunderstorm activity is predicted to increase across the Canadian Rockies. The long-range forecast is calling for an uptick in thunderstorm activity by the middle of the summer for these higher terrains.

A decrease in the activity during the monsoon season for the southwest corner of the U.S. will trigger a greater chance of storms in areas farther to the north, including much of the northern U.S. and into the Canadian Rockies. This parade of storms will bring much-needed rainfall to this part of Canada.

However, the increase in monsoonal storms will also mean a higher risk of lightning strikes capable of starting wildfires.

Central Canada Forecast to See a Seasonable Summer

The majority of central Canada will see temperatures and precipitation levels that hover near normal. This includes the prediction of seasonable weather for most of the Canadian Prairies. The exception is the expectation of drier yet cooler weather for the northwestern portion of Ontario and much of Manitoba.

This prediction is based on the forecast of high pressure anchored over western Canada infiltrating into this portion of central Canada.

Although high pressure is typically associated with warmer temperatures, this part of central Canada will also be under the gun for smoke from the wildfires to the west, suppressing the mercury in the process. The shift should not be too drastic and will wane as the smoke filters out.

More Storms for Ontario and Quebec

Storms will be the story this summer for large portions of the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. This boost in storm prevalence will be blamed on a dip in the jet stream that settles in across the Great Lakes over the summer.

The dip will create a higher than usual chance for thunderstorm activity in southern and eastern portions of Ontario and into the southern tier of Quebec. Risks associated with this uptick in storms include hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.

The silver lining is that the uptick in storms will likely help to alleviate the growing drought concerns. For example, Toronto is forecast to see slightly higher than normal levels of precipitation this summer, a change from last summer and its suppressed rainfall totals.

Most cities in the region are predicted to run about normal for temperatures. This includes Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.

Will Atlantic Canada Dodge the Tropical Weather This Summer?

Atlantic Canada experienced one of its worst natural disaster events in history last summer when Subtropical Storm Fiona battered the region with damaging winds and torrential rain. Forecasters are predicting that this part of eastern Canada will see a lower than usual risk of tropical weather events this summer.

Although the overall 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to land at about average for the number of named storms, Atlantic Canada may avoid these landfalls because of the pervading climate patterns currently in place. The region generally sees one or two landfalls of a named storm each season.

The region is forecast to be slightly warmer than usual with higher levels of humidity. This pattern is similar to what this part of Canada experienced last summer.

Although the first half of the summer is forecast to come with near average amounts of precipitation, the rain is predicted to pick up in the latter half of the season.

As always, these long-range forecasts are simply predictions based on historical data and current expectations. You will want to stay tuned to your local weather forecast as the season unfolds.

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