Tropical Weather Still a Possibility as Elements Come Together in Caribbean

Posted: November 13, 2023 4:26 pm

Although tropical weather experts had unofficially put a wrap on the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, there may be one last system making a run in the Caribbean. Here is what forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are keeping an eye on in the coming days as well as more information on the potential track and severity of any developing tropical features.

Caribbean Sea Still Showing Signs of Potential Tropical Activity

There are only a few weeks left in the official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, set to come to a close on November 30. However, the Caribbean Sea is still showing signs of life. Exceptionally warm ocean water temperatures and low amounts of wind shear are working to create a favorable environment for this part of the Atlantic basin even this late in the season.

While this is late in the season for typical tropical development, this is the part of the Caribbean that is known to birth tropical features in November. In addition to the warm sea surface temperatures, the water welling under the surface is also warm enough to support tropical development. This pairing lays the groundwork for tropical activity should wind shear not work to break it apart.

Although wind shear has been strong in the Caribbean in recent days, forecasters are predicting that it will weaken later this week. This means that any showers and thunderstorms that pop up during this time period may be given the space to grow and strengthen.

A number of rain shower clusters and storm cells are already coming together in the southern portions of the Caribbean to start the week. This area of unsettled weather is expected to hang on through the week, giving time for the wind shear to weaken and make way for further intensification.

Who Might See the Impacts of Tropical Weather This Week

By the end of the week, forecasters are warning that the Greater Antilles will need to be aware of the possibility of tropical development. Areas of Jamaica, Hispaniola, the southern edge of the Bahamas, and eastern Cuba will want to stay tuned to this developing forecast. Even if a full-fledged tropical system does not develop, a zone of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms will raise the risk of flash flooding in the region. Other potential impacts include strong winds and coastal flooding.

The timing of the development of the system will be crucial in determining if it delivers significant impacts. There is a small window of opportunity for all of the ingredients to line up to support the development of a named feature. Should the potential feature not come together quickly enough, it will miss the chance to move out of the Caribbean before a cold front enters this portion of the basin and thwarts further growth.

There is also the possibility that a stronger tropical weather maker could form this weekend or in the beginning part of next week. This feature would be able to take advantage of lessening amounts of wind shear, providing a larger window of time for development. A cold front expected to swing along the East Coast late in the week could suck up this tropical moisture as it moves to the north.

Lastly, a rainstorm is also coming together in the Gulf of Mexico and could merge with the front. This would deliver even more moisture to some areas of the Carolinas and up through New England, mostly along the coastal areas. Atlantic Canada would also be under the gun for this shot of tropical moisture late next week and into the weekend should all of these elements come together.

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