2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Coming to an End with a Small Threat of a New Storm on the Horizon

Posted: November 17, 2023 9:24 am

Is the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season unofficially over? While the official end of the season does not happen until November 30, tropical weather experts are predicting that there is only a small chance that another named storm will develop. Here is what forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are watching in the waning days.

Three Storms Made Landfall in U.S. in 2023

It was a particularly active season for this part of the world’s oceans this season, however, many of these named storms remained well out to sea. This meant that the season did not generate the headlines of recent years that saw multiple strikes on the U.S. For instance, only three storms made landfall in the U.S. this year out of the total of 19 named features.

Tropical Storm Harold carried the distinction of the first storm to hit the U.S. this year, coming on shore on August 22 in Padre Island, Texas. It was just one week later that Hurricane Idalia made landfall along the western coast of Florida as a major Category 4 storm. Idalia remains the strongest tropical feature to make landfall in the U.S. this year. Lastly, Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall on September 22 in North Carolina.

Hurricane Lee reached the status of a Category 5 storm as it churned through the Caribbean, however, it never made landfall in the U.S. The storm eventually came on shore on September 16 in Nova Scotia, delivering a small degree of impacts to the coastal areas of New England on its way to Atlantic Canada.

In addition, what was once Hurricane Philippe impacted portions of the U.S. East Coast and Canada at the beginning of October. By the time that it impacted the U.S., it had transitioned down to a tropical wind and rainstorm, losing a great amount of intensity as it entered the colder waters of the North Atlantic.

Wind Shear Will Break Up Potential Tropical Development

With just two weeks left in the season, forecasters are predicting that there is only a small chance that the waning days will feature a named storm. Long-range forecasting models do not indicate that conditions will be favorable for additional development.

For example, a high amount of wind shear present in the Atlantic will work to suppress any potential tropical activity over the next few weeks. Defined as the change in wind speed and direction, wind shear is known to break up storms that come to life.

Should any area see a random storm pop up, it would likely happen in the southwestern corner of the Caribbean. This is because this part of the basin is currently featuring the warmest ocean water temperatures. However, even if a storm spins up in this region, it is not likely to hold together long enough to hit the contiguous U.S.

In the unlikely event that two storms form, it would put the 2023 season in record territory. An influx of early-season activity quickly exhausted the predetermined names, leaving just two more on the official list. Vince and Whitney are the remaining two names.

It should be noted that the list of 19 named storms does not include the rare subtropical system that came together in the Atlantic in January. Nor does it include Tropical Depression 21, a feature that moved across the western Caribbean at the end of October.

There have only been three instances in which the list of predetermined names ran out. This first time happened during the 2005 season, boasting a whopping 28 named storms. The 2020 season was even more of a blockbuster with its 30 named storms. Most recently, the 2021 season featured 21 named features. These numbers are most impressive when considering that the average number of named features during a typical Atlantic hurricane season is 14.

Understanding the ACE Metric

As of November 7, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating for the 2023 season sat at 145.6. This metric measures both the intensity and the longevity of tropical systems to provide a snapshot of the activity over any given time period. Weak and short-lived tropical weather events produce a small amount of ACE. Conversely, a powerful hurricane that lingers for a good amount of time generates a large ACE.

The ACE reading for 2023 sits just below the 2021 season, producing an ACE of 145.7. Compare that to the historic 2005 season that saw an ACE of 245.3, making it the highest on record since the 1960s.

While highly unlikely, the development of three more named storms this year would mean that a new naming system will be used. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that it would retire the previous use of the Greek alphabet and replace it with a different set of names should the original list be exhausted. The first name on this supplemental list is Adria.

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