Heavy Rain Will Pound Florida’s East Coast Through at Least Saturday

Posted: December 13, 2023 9:16 am

A deluge of rain is setting up to dump across Florida’s Atlantic coastline this week, also triggering potentially dangerous beach conditions along with the strong winds. Here is what you need to know about the upcoming forecast for the Sunshine State and other areas of the region in the coming days.

Timing of Moisture’s Arrival in Florida

The weather maker is forecast to get going late this week and linger through the weekend, ruining the plans of vacationers hoping to get a head start on holiday travel at a warmer location. It has already been a wet year across Florida’s Atlantic coast. For example, Fort Lauderdale was sitting at over 109 inches of rain through December 12.

It has been the opposite situation on the other side of the peninsula. The city of Naples in Southwest Florida has only recorded a little over 22 inches of rainfall this year.

This week’s forecast is calling for more rain as a surge of tropical moisture coming from the southwestern corner of the Atlantic Ocean. This moisture will meet up with precipitation coming over from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week as a major storm system pushes down from the Rockies and across the High Plains and Gulf Coast. The convergence of both of these elements will combine to make for a soggy few days in much of Florida.

High Winds Triggering Red Flag Warnings

Winds will also be an issue this week for the eastern shores of Florida. Some red flag warnings are already in place at many beaches in the region. These onshore winds are forecast to pick up through the week and make their way up the coast and into the southeastern U.S. Beachgoers will want to stay on top of these advisories before heading out.

The winds will lead to water piling up across the beaches in the southern part of the state and the tidal rivers through the Southeast. Water may back up along Florida’s St. Johns River, the Savannah River in Georgia, and South Carolina’s Congaree River.

A large area of high pressure is setting up across the central and eastern portions of the country this week. This area will work to keep the moisture stuck along the Atlantic coastline of Florida and the Southeast, preventing its movement away from the region.

Forecasters are also warning that the end of the week will bring the risk of thunderstorms coming on shore from the Atlantic Ocean. This persistent rain will raise the risk of flooding along the eastern shores of Florida.

Even though the Gulf Coast of Florida was the only part of the state to experience direct tropical weather events this past season, the Atlantic coast saw its fair share of heavy rain events. Fort Lauderdale has been ground zero for this severe weather. The city picked up a massive 22.50 inches of rain on one day in April. Another three-day rain event in the middle of November added 10.66 inches of rain to the annual total. The incoming precipitation could also contribute rainfall amounts of 10 inches or more.

A few rain showers and thunderstorms will get going in Florida on Wednesday with the rate and intensity of the moisture picking up steam on Thursday through late Saturday. The weekend will bring the highest chance of flooding thanks to the compounding impact of the rain. The behavior of the storm system that is coming together in the Gulf of Mexico will determine how much rain Florida gets by the time the weekend wraps up.

Forecasters are still unsure about where this system will head at the end of the weekend. There is an opportunity for this weather maker to make its way to the north up the Atlantic Seaboard, reaching as far as the Northeast to start the new work week.

However, that area of high pressure may continue to block the rain from migrating that far north. More details will become available in the coming days as the forecast comes into sharper focus.

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