At least 50 dead across Central and South America as Julia tracks toward Mexico

Posted: October 10, 2022 3:54 pm

Now a tropical disturbance, Julia churned through Central and South America as a tropical storm and Category 1 hurricane, leaving 50 dead in its wake.

According to officials, most victims were in Venezuela, El Salvadore, and Guatemala, with heavy rain being dumped across a wide swath of South and Central America as the weakening storm tracked toward southern Mexico.

Guatemalan authorities reported eight confirmed deaths between Sunday and Monday, while hundreds more were affected by the storm.

In El Salvadore, conditions were even worse as officials reported 10 deaths due to the storm, including five soldiers. Over a thousand people were evacuated from coastal zones.

Due to the storm, authorities in both countries cancelled classes on Monday.

Elsewhere in the region, five victims were confirmed dead in Honduras, including a woman who was swept away in flood waters and a young boy who was in a boat that capsized off the coast near the Nicaragua border, officials said Sunday afternoon.

Later on Monday, Panama’s emergency services confirmed two deaths resulting from heavy rains, and around 300 people were evacuated from border communities along the Panamanian and Costa Rican border.

Julia made landfall along Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast on Sunday before crossing across the country and into the Pacific Ocean later that day.

By Monday evening, the hurricane had dissipated and what remained of the storm was traveling northwest near the Guatemala/Mexico border at a sustained speed of 15 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Based in Miami, the NHC estimated Julia to have maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and warned of life-threatening surf conditions along the El Salvadoran and Guatemalan coasts. The center also warned of heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding throughout the region.

Forecasts predicted up to an additional four inches of rain in El Salvador and Guatemala, and up to six inches of rain on Mexico’s Tehuantepec isthmus.

In Nicaragua, a million people were left without power and flooding from heavy rains led to the evacuation of over 13,000 residents. In neighboring Honduras, authorities added that 9,200 people were in shelters seeking refuge from Julia.

Julia makes landfall as hurricane, weakens to a tropical disturbance

Julia hit Nicaragua on Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane after reaching hurricane strength Saturday evening.

By Monday, the storm had been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved along El Salvador’s coast. According to forecasts, it was expected to dissipate by Monday evening.

AccuWeather meteorologists warned of expected life-threatening impacts across areas of Central America as heavy rain continued to fall both inland and along the coast.

Meteorologists have been tracking the disturbance for over a week. On Tuesday of last week, they had labeled it nothing more than a tropical rainstorm, but by Thursday night, the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression 13.

On Friday afternoon, the NHC declared the depression had strengthened into a tropical storm, making it the tenth named storm of the 2022 hurricane season.

A day later on Saturday evening, Julia was upgraded once again, except this time, to hurricane status.

By 3:15 a.m. EDT Sunday, Julia made landfall and was moving west at 16 mph. The storm had maximum sustained winds of up to 85 mph in its eyewall, classifying it as a Category 1 hurricane according to the widely accepted Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The center of Julia was near Pearl Lagoon, Nicaragua as it made landfall. Late Sunday morning, Julia began losing wind intensity and was downgraded once again to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

At 1:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Julia’s sustained wind speed dropped to 40 mph, and the storm was centered approximately 15 miles to the south of San Salvador.

Julia continued tracking westward across Nicaragua on Sunday as its winds lost intensity. However, the threat of heavy rain and flooding remains Monday through Tuesday as the storm becomes increasingly disorganized.

Despite preparations made ahead of hurricane Julia, according to AP News, winds caused extensive damage to roofs and trees throughout Nicaragua, and flooding forced evacuations and the closure of several highly trafficked roadways.

The only impediment to Julia’s development last week was its continued interaction with the South American coast. The system trekked steadily westward throughout the week, resulting in torrential rain and flooding in parts of Trinidad and Tobago.

Torrential downpours continued as Julia continued its trek along the Venezuelan coast, tragically causing a mud slide in which at least 25 have been confirmed dead.

The most devastating threats to property and lives has stemmed from near-record rainfall in Central America.

Parts of southern Honduras and western Nicaragua have received up to 12 inches of rain. Meanwhile, eastern El Salvadore received 20 inches.

Due to the magnitude of rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides have occurred throughout the urban areas and mountainous terrain.

With Julia’s impacts expected to continue in the region this week, the storm has been rated a “2” on AccuWeather’s RealImpact ™ Scale for Hurricanes.

Localized gusty winds, heavy rain, and flooding is expected to continue spreading northward and westward deep into southern Mexico Tuesday.

Despite significant weaking from the storm’s Category One hurricane status as it made landfall in Nicaragua, the coffee farmers in southern Mexico’s rich coffee region remain nervous about Julia’s impact on the coffee harvest.

Coffee exports bring in billions annually across the Central American region.

Where is Julia now?

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of hurricane Julia are extending southwestward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will likely cause flash flooding and mudslides across portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

What’s next for Julia?

On the forecast track, a new area of low pressure is projected to form from this disturbance area by Wednesday or Thursday.

Subsequent gradual development of the system will be possible while remaining offshore of the southern Mexico coast as it continues moving west and northwestward through week’s end.

Regardless of further development, heavy rainfall is likely to persist, resulting in flash floods and mudslides throughout parts of southern Mexico over the next couple of days.

Julia’s impact on South and Central America

Making landfall in Nicaragua as a category 1 hurricane, Julia dumped up to 15 inches of rain on isolated areas of the country.

El Salvador and Guatemala received five to 10 inches of rain, with some areas also receiving up to 15.

Meanwhile, Honduras and Belize received up to 10 inches of rain in some areas, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula may receive up to six inches of rain before Julia finally says its goodbye.

Regardless of the totals, rainfall from Julia has devastated the lives of dozens of families and the infrastructures of several South and Central American cities.

Flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue across Mexico’s Isthmus of Tehuantepec through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Despite slow start, 2022 hurricane season is picking up steam

Julia formed just 10 days after destructive Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 storm on Florida’s southwest coast.

Ian barreled its way across the state, unleashing massive flooding that destroyed infrastructure and neighborhoods. Power was wiped out to millions and at least 120 people were killed, according to local and state officials.

Prior to Ian, which eventually regained hurricane strength and made a second U.S. landfall in South Carolina, it had been a relatively quiet 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Only three named storms formed from June 1 to September 1, and for the first time since 1997, none formed in August.

Activity picked up with Danielle and Earl in mid-September, which along with Ian, only formed a day apart from one another.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an updated forecast in early August, which continued to project an above-average level of activity.

In the updated forecast, NOAA scientists predicted there could be up to 20 named storms, 10 of which could turn into hurricanes with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or greater. Up to five of these storms could strengthen into major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 110 mph.

After a record 30 named storms in 2020, there were 21 major storms last year, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabetical list of names used in identifying storms both years. The only other time this occurred was in 2005.

With less than two months remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season, it’s not impossible for 2021 to reach these figures.

October ranks as the third most active month in the Atlantic Basin in terms of tropical activity, and typically produces two named storms and one hurricane each year.

Recent Posts