Atmospheric River Set to Douse Atlantic Canada in Coming Days

Posted: June 29, 2023 2:00 pm

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As the calendar makes the switch from June to July, both the Atlantic and East Pacific oceans are showing signs of life in the tropics. Here is the latest news regarding potential tropical development in both basins.

Former Tropical Storm Cindy Remnants to Create Atmospheric River

What is left of the former Tropical Storm Cindy will help to spur a round of tropical moisture skirting up the East Coast and into Atlantic Canada this week. The system first took on the designation of a tropical storm on June 22 before it was downgraded to a rainstorm after losing its wind intensity. However, there is still plenty of moisture and energy associated with Cindy’s remnants.

This moisture is turning into an atmospheric river with the help of a dip in the jet stream setting up across the Northeast. Although atmospheric rivers are more commonly found on the West Coast, these plumes of immense moisture can also impact the East Coast given the right conditions.

The chance of significant moisture is good news for the portion of the Northeast and Atlantic Canada currently grappling with drought conditions. Eastern Canada has been particularly dry lately with a large portion of eastern Quebec, Labrador, and Newfoundland under the designation of abnormally dry conditions as defined by the North American Drought Monitor.

Even worse, some areas of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island are currently in a state of moderate or severe drought.

As much as 1 – 2 inches of rain is forecast to fall across Atlantic Canada over a few days. The dry soil may have a challenging time taking on this much new moisture in a short period of time, raising the risk of flash flooding.

Keeping an Eye on the Atlantic Basin

Now that Cindy has dissipated and exited the Caribbean, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring other areas of potential tropical development.

Despite strong wind shear across this part of the Atlantic, a zone of disturbed weather located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has been able to come together. The current models show this feature passing well east of Bermuda before making a turn to the north.

A massive area of high pressure anchored over the North Atlantic will likely impact the direction and potential intensity of any new tropical features. There is no doubt that all eyes are on this corner of the Atlantic as hurricane season starts to heat up.

Adrian Becomes First Hurricane of Season in East Pacific

The East Pacific also saw its first named storm of the season when Tropical Storm Adrian formed on Tuesday. This storm development was not a surprise as forecasters had been monitoring an area of low pressure over the last several days.

Adrian had strengthened into a hurricane by Wednesday morning. With winds of 75 mph, the storm was deemed a Category 1 hurricane as it spun about 360 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Hurricane Adrian is moving to the west at about 8 mph.

The storm is unlikely to impact any land in the coming days thanks to its projected westward track over open waters. Warm waters and a lack of wind shear are predicted to keep the feature at a status of a hurricane.

The East Pacific hurricane season kicks off two weeks earlier than the Atlantic season, making it an anomaly that the Atlantic has already seen three named storms before the East Pacific gets underway.

According to data from the NHC, the first named storm spins up in the East Pacific at an average date of June 10, putting this year well behind normal. The latest first named storm in the East Pacific happened in 2016 when it took until July 2 for Agatha to form.

Meteorologists are also watching a tropical wave churning to the east of Adrian near the southern coast of Mexico. There is a chance that this wave could turn into a tropical depression by the weekend. Mexico may see some of these impacts, primarily in the form of dangerous rip currents and rough surf conditions.

There is also the possibility that some of the feature’s outer rain bands will spread over the Mexican peninsula, washing out beach plans and creating a risk of flash flooding.

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