Central America in Impact Zone for Tropical Weather Once Again

Posted: November 3, 2023 12:51 pm

Central America is about to get doused with a tropical rainstorm that could intensify into a named feature. This major weather maker could bring the threat of dangerous flood flooding to some of the most vulnerable communities in its path. Read on for all of the details of what is happening to end the week in the tropics.

Small Window of Development on the Horizon for Tropical Rainstorm

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that this tropical rainstorm is not likely to develop into a named feature. The small window of time for this development is rapidly diminishing. Conditions in this part of the Atlantic basin have worked to hinder the growth of this system as large areas of dry and disruptive winds have become more prevalent over the last few days.

However, the storm is going to bring significant impacts to some portions of Central America regardless of if it intensifies into a tropical storm. The warm ocean waters in the Caribbean will likely continue to keep the storm system intact through the weekend.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean have been hovering in the mid 80s. These readings are well over the recognized threshold of 80 degrees needed for tropical features to form and thrive. In addition, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa last week is moving into the warm waters of the Caribbean. This movement could translate to a further strengthening of the existing system.

While disruptive winds have worked to prevent growth over the last several hours, the wind shear in the western Caribbean is currently registering on a lower scale. As a result, the tropical wave could gain some steam when it arrives in this part of the basin. Tropical features are typically given more freedom to strengthen when little to no amount of wind shear.

Forecasters are also noting that the ocean water temperatures are also trending warmer below the surface. This warm water in the depths of the ocean will keep storms together when compared to cooler water temperatures that are more likely to weaken these features.

What is most worrisome to tropical weather experts with this particular feature is that any further strengthening could happen quickly. The warm water at the surface and below and the low wind shear could contribute to a fast explosion in strength in size if all of the factors line up correctly.

Who Will See the Impacts from This Tropical Weather Feature?

The U.S. is not expected to experience any of the impacts from this feature. However, those in Central America and the southern portions of Mexico should stay abreast of any new developments.

A large area of Central America will be under the gun for heavy rain, gusty winds, thunderstorms, and rough surf conditions. Areas that see repeated downpours will be at risk of mudslides and flash flooding, particular over higher terrains. The severity of these impacts will be influenced by how the tropical rainstorm develops on Friday and into the weekend.

As of now, the areas most likely to see heavy rain include Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize. Should this system take on a name, it will be called Vince.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has produced 20 named tropical storms. There have been seven hurricanes that roamed the basin this season with the distinction of the strongest storm belonging to September’s Category 5 Hurricane Lee.

Tropical Storm Pilar Weakening and Moving Out to Sea

Moving to the west, Tropical Storm Pilar is continuing its track across the East Pacific. While the storm threatened El Salvador earlier in the week, forecasters were correct in their predictions that Pilar would take a turn to the west and move away from land.

Sea surface temperatures in this part of the Pacific were not warm enough to lead to significant strengthening. It was just a few weeks ago that Hurricane Otis went through the process of rapid intensification in this same area and crashed onto the shores of southern Mexico, killing dozens of people in and around Acapulco.

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