Climatologists Look for Links Between Climate Crisis and Change in Tornadic Behavior

Posted: December 18, 2022 2:02 am

Extreme Weather Events on the Rise

Last week’s deadly tornadic outbreak across the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast is putting a new spotlight on one of the most dangerous weather events in the world. If you think that there have been an increasing amount of extreme weather events over the last several years, you may not be imagining this. Experts are continually pointing to climate change as a factor in the worsening and frequency of severe weather events. Here is what scientists are learning about how climate change may be changing the behavior of tornadoes.

Why Are Tornadoes Changing in Frequency and Severity?

Scientists have been able to draw a clear connection between heat waves, hurricanes, and other types of deadly weather events and the worsening climate crisis. However, tornadoes have been a bit more challenging to pinpoint because of their more erratic behavior.

What researchers hope to determine is why these tornadoes are happening outside of the normal time frame. For instance, the last two Decembers have seen deadly outbreaks of twisters that happened outside of the normal severe weather season. The question is if these outbreaks are happening as a result of a warming planet.

One of the most difficult aspects of learning more about tornadic behavior is their short-lived nature. This paired with a scattered history makes it more challenging to find trends that may be easier to spot with more predictable weather events such as hurricanes or heat waves.

What the Data Says

Experts in the field have been adamant that climate change is certainly playing a role in the historic December tornadic outbreaks that have not happened two years in a row. This is because an increased presence of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere will naturally disrupt what has been the historic weather patterns around the planet.

It takes looking at the data together as a whole to isolate trends. Only then can you see that these outbreaks are becoming more severe in nature as well as more frequent.

For instance, scientists have been able to isolate that the frequency of tornadic activity has increased over the last few decades across the southern Midwest and the Southeast. However, this activity has actually decreased throughout the central and southern Plains, an area of the country that used to experience the greatest amount of tornadoes.

One particular study published in Sage Journals in 2019 indicated that the eastward trajectory in what is considered to be Tornado Alley has led to more twisters spinning up east of the Mississippi River. Weather impacts such as increased amounts of humidity and instability have created this shift in the primary impact zone.

This study also demonstrated that tornadoes are clustering together on fewer days of the year with more sporadic activity instead. There are also more outbreaks happening in the fall and winter seasons, outside of the typically busy spring and summer months for tornadoes.

Could Role of Jet Stream by the Key?

What is known with certainty is that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has impacted the climate system by disrupting the normal activity of the atmosphere’s jet stream. Although it has not been proven, some scientists hypothesize that a disrupted jet stream may be triggering the necessary environmental factors to cause more tornado outbreaks.

However, there is also the chance that any given tornadic outbreak that is outside of the norm, such as last week’s events, simply happened as a result of natural weather conditions. With the issue of climate change always in the background, it is often tempting to make the leap to this being the trigger. This is why it is important to look at long-term trends rather than isolated events to determine the role that climate change may be playing.

Experts also note that the tornadoes may seem to be causing more damage because of the increased urbanization of many regions around the world. The growth of cities has made a greater amount of the world’s population a target. This fact was demonstrated through a 2021 report out of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that detailed an extreme weather event happening every day across the globe over the last five decades. This number represented an increase of five times over that same time period since 1970.

The good news is that more and more research is being commissioned to study the impacts of the climate crisis on extreme weather events. This is providing valuable input about how humans can adapt to the ongoing situation.

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