Dangerously Cold Temperatures Hamper Turnout for Iowa State Caucuses

Posted: January 16, 2024 9:51 am

It was predicted to end up as the coldest caucus in Iowa state history as Iowans gather to kick off the 2024 presidential election on Monday. The dangerously cold temperatures were likely to keep caucus participants away as the state looks to appoint their choice for the GOP candidate in the upcoming election. How cold was it and what were the candidates saying about the potential impacts of the weather on voter turnout? Read on for all of the details.

Invasion of Arctic Air Threatening Participation in Iowa State Caucus

The 2024 Republican candidates and their campaign teams were rightfully concerned that the frightful weather forecast would keep people away from the caucus sites on Monday. A mass of Arctic air made its way down into the Midwest from the north, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to all of Iowa. In fact, Monday was forecast to be the coldest day in the month of January for the state in at least five years.

Iowans started the day with temperature readings that were forecast to hover over 15 degrees below zero. Almost all of the Hawkeye State struggled to inch above the zero-degree mark even during the peak of the afternoon heating hours. Only the extreme southeastern portion of Iowa was expected to crack this threshold. It was also forecast to be the first time since February 2021 that the state capital of Des Moines had not seen a high temperature above zero degrees, speaking to the rarity of this weather pattern.

Complicating the weather picture more were brisk winds that created dangerously cold wind chills plummeting as low as negative 40 degrees. These real feel readings plummeted to levels ranging between minus 20 to minus 40 degrees for the bulk of the day.

In addition to being extremely uncomfortable, weather of this magnitude also created accessibility issues, particularly for the elderly caucus goers.

How the Weather Has Already Impacted the Campaign

The GOP campaign managers have had to work overtime over the past several days to change their ground game approach thanks to the inclement conditions. A snowstorm whipped through the state last week, forcing the candidates to cancel or reschedule several events. Early in the week, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley canceled an appearance in Sioux City because of the winter storm. Former President Donald Trump also was forced to cancel an appearance with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee because of travel concerns.

While entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy initially criticized Haley for canceling an appearance, he later called off three of his events the next day because of deteriorating conditions. This pattern continued off and on throughout the week as several bouts of winter weather rushed through the state.

The candidates were already warning those planning to caucus that now was not the time to get complacent about attending Monday’s discussions and votes. A key tenet in any campaign is to encourage voter turnout to your advantage. The latest polls indicate that Trump is well ahead of the pack with Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis duking it out for second place.

Individual City Forecasts

What can you expect at different caucus locations as far as the weather is concerned? As the biggest city in the state, Des Moines was forecasted to top out with a high of 1 degree below zero on Monday. Cloudy skies in the morning gave way to partly cloudy conditions later in the day. It was breezy with winds out of the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Heading to the north, Sioux City was predicted to only see a high of negative 3 degrees. It was even more blustery in this corner of the state with winds coming out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph. The city was under a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

Iowa City was forecast to see more clouds than sun, keeping the temperatures at about 1 degree below zero for a high. The college town will see winds out of the west at 10 to 15 mph along with overnight lows that fall to minus 12 degrees after the sun goes down.

No matter how you slice it, it was a cold and windy day across the state of Iowa. People bundled up when heading out to participate in what was always one of the most anticipated events of the early election season.

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