Different Weather Systems Converging to Produce Significant Moisture for Central U.S.

Posted: October 25, 2023 10:30 am

Three different weather makers are meeting up this week across the south-central U.S. to contribute various levels of moisture to the drought-stricken region. Who will see the most rain? Here are the details of this soggy forecast.

Tropical Moisture Left from Norma Will Trigger Rainfall

It has been a period of exceptionally dry weather for a large portion of the central states. However, three separate weather events will provide relief to the drought for an area stretching from the southern Plains and up into the Upper Midwest in the coming days.

The first weather event is the tropical moisture that was left behind by the former Hurricane Norma. This moisture is moving to the northeast from Mexico at the same time that a southward dip in the jet stream is predicted to form across the West. These two elements will combine with a cold front moving across the Plains to bring up the moisture and drop it across the nation’s heartland.

Norma came on shore along the southern edge of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula on Saturday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane. While it was still a hurricane when it made landfall, it had weakened considerably since its status of a Category 4 monster earlier in the week. The feature continued to lose strength as it made a second landfall in the western portion of Mexico early Monday.

The moisture still associated with Norma is predicted to move into the Big Bend area of the Rio Grande River on Wednesday, eventually making its way up into northern Texas, the bulk of Oklahoma, and central and eastern portions of Kansas. This rain is good news for a part of the country that has been grappling with an ongoing drought, however, the moisture will also bring a number of flash flooding risks.

The precipitation is predicted to continue to push to the north and the northeast throughout the week, impacting the Great Lakes on Thursday. The forecast dip in the jet stream will also work to bring up additional rounds of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, adding to the rain totals.

Rainfall Total Predictions

How much rain can you expect with this weather pattern? Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 – 2 inches of rain are expected for central Texas, into Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the northwestern corner of Missouri, eastern Nebraska, southeastern Minnesota, northern Michigan, and a large portion of Iowa and Wisconsin. The silver lining is that the slow-moving system will translate to this rain falling over a period of about three days.

Although most of the rain will be spread out, it is not out of the question that a few localized areas may pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain. This amount of rain will raise the threat of flash flooding but will also help to boost water levels across the Mississippi River in the coming weeks.

The greatest threat of flash flooding will be along the Interstate 35 corridor between Oklahoma City and Dallas. This zone could pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain on Wednesday and into the overnight hours. Fallen leaves could also block storm drains and raise the risk of flooding.

Looking Ahead to the Rest of the Week

Coming in behind the rain will be much colder temperatures. This mass of cold air is expected to slow down and stall as it moves through the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. This cold air could trigger the formation of more moisture, including snow for the northern tier of the Midwest.

It has already been a snowy week for the northern Rockies and parts of the extreme northern Plains. Next week’s system could bring even more of the white stuff to this region.

The southern edge of the system will pack more rain, bringing the possibility of a few inches of new rain to the Ohio River Valley. This moisture would also work to increase water levels in the Mississippi River as the runoff from its tributaries works its way down the pipeline.

Local officials in southern Louisiana continue to warn about the plunging water levels in the Lower Mississippi River. A low flow rate has allowed salt water to creep up into the delta and threaten the drinking water supply in New Orleans and beyond.

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