Drastic Weather Changes in Store for the South-Central U.S. This Week

Posted: October 3, 2023 9:45 am

The south-central U.S. is going to experience a significant change in the weather this week just as the calendar flips from September to October. What can you expect with this new weather pattern? Read on for the details.

Extreme Heat to Come to an End in Southern Plains and Texas

Cooler air is on the way for the south-central portions of the country, providing relief to a summer season that does not seem to want to end. It has been an unseasonably warm start to the fall for the southern Plains and across Texas. Temperatures that are more representative of true autumn weather will finally hit the region this week, however, this change in the conditions will also come with the risk of enhanced moisture and chances of flooding.

The dramatic change in the temperatures will be most noticeable in Texas. The Lone Star State just experienced an exceptionally hot September with cities such as Dallas and Austin recording readings that were at least 6 degrees above the monthly average this year. San Antonio ended the month with temperatures averaging over 7 degrees above the norm when readings landed in the 90s and 100s every day of September.

It was nearly just as hot in the Dallas and Fort Worth metroplex. Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) only saw the mercury fall below 70 degrees in the overnight hours four times throughout all of September. This airport also recorded six new daily high records as the extreme heat refused to budge.

This sweltering weather pattern came with a lack of moisture. DFW has recorded just 2.08 inches of rain since June 1. Eastern and central portions of Texas also have been experiencing widespread drought conditions in recent months. According to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, a large portion of the state is under the designation of extreme or exceptional drought.

When to Expect the Cooler and Wetter Weather

The good news is that the new weather pattern will usher in more precipitation along with the cooler temperatures. The cold front will make its move from the Rocky Mountain region across to the Gulf Coast beginning the middle of the week.

This cold front will bring the temperatures down into the 80s for highs for much of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Northern Texas may see the mercury top out in the mid 70s for daytime highs, bringing relief to a part of the state that has seen several weeks of readings in the 90s and 100s. Temperatures are forecast to hover near the historical average for the beginning of October for several days.

Before the temperatures begin to tumble, you can expect severe weather to fire up as the mild air in the Plains clashes with the cooler air mass coming down from the Rockies. This clash will provide the fuel for storms to ignite in the early parts of the week.

New Mexico and western portions of Texas will see the first of the storms erupt late Monday. By Tuesday, the threat of severe weather will move into the Plains. This shift will put a larger area at risk, stretching from South Dakota and down into central Texas. Like typical summer storms, the greatest chance of severe weather will be in the afternoon and evening hours.

In addition to torrential downpours, the storms will pack strong winds and the chance of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Areas most likely to see the most severe impacts include western Oklahoma and Texas and up into central Kansas and eastern Nebraska.

The cold front is expected to move to the south and the east by Wednesday, sending the severe weather threats in this direction. Flooding rain will become the biggest concern by the middle of the week as the moisture continues to fall.

Flooding Concerns an Issue

Some of these storms could stick around through Friday if the front slows down in speed. A slower moving front will inevitably raise the risk of flooding because some regions will see repeated downpours throughout the week. This is because dry ground typically has a harder time absorbing mass amounts of moisture at one time, acting more like concrete rather than soil. Heavy rainfall will likely drain off into low-lying areas and trigger a higher risk of flooding.

The dry conditions as of late will also contribute to a greater risk of flooding. How dry has it been? Fort Worth only recorded 20% of the historical average of rain during the months of August and September. Farther to the south, Houston sat at just 29% of the average amount of rain during these two months.

Any moisture that falls after the heavy downpours prime the ground will bring significant relief to the drought-stricken region.

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