Drought Concerns Worsen in the Northeast Despite Forecast of New Coastal Storm

Posted: May 19, 2023 11:13 am

Despite the forecast for incoming rain along the coastal areas of the Northeast, the moisture is not likely going to be enough to ease drought concerns. Here is what you can expect as a storm moves into the region over the weekend.

Drought Conditions Worsen in the Northeast

It has been an unusually wet May for much of the East Coast. Some of the region’s biggest cities have only recorded 10% of the historical average amount of rainfall. This includes scarce precipitation for Washington, D.C., Boston, and New York City. Across the Northeast as a whole, rainfall amounts are averaging about 25% of normal for this time of the year.

The lack of precipitation is being exacerbated by warm air and dry conditions. Although this may be a welcome weather pattern for those residents ready to get summer started, the conditions have created headaches for farmers who are ready to plant their crops.

The weather is looking to change this weekend as a storm builds along the coast. While the immediate coastal areas will be the beneficiary of this weather maker, it is unlikely that the moisture moves far enough inland to provide relief from the drought along the Interstate 95 corridor.

The areas most likely to see significant moisture out of this system include central and eastern New England. This region could get lucky with about an inch of rain on tap. The rain will be limited to the afternoon and evening hours for the most part, giving residents the time to get outside for errands and activities.

The storm was already making its presence known along the southern tier of the Atlantic coast on Thursday, generating some rough surf conditions. This system is not expected to gain enough traction to cause any coastal flooding issues, however, beach goers will want to be aware of the possibility of strong rip currents.

How Much Rain Will the Region See?

A cold front moving in from the west will create cloud cover and rain showers across the central Appalachians and up through the eastern Great Lakes. However, forecasters warn that this system is not going to deliver the meaningful amounts of rain needed to ease drought worries.

There is not a good amount of moisture to work with in this cold front. This is because the jet stream has split into two branches with the southern stream hogging the bulk of the moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the Midwest and the Northeast have been left out of the rain train.

While the Gulf Coast and southern U.S. have seen their fair share of rain this month, Florida has also been neglected on the moisture front. Other than regular rain in the southeastern corner of the Sunshine State, the rest of the peninsula is dealing with drought conditions.

For instance, Tampa has only recorded 2.35 inches of rain since the beginning of February. This is a long way from the historical average of 9 inches over this time period.

Meanwhile, the northern branch of the jet stream has been strong enough to ferry the smoke from the wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia Canada into the northern Plains, the Midwest and the Northeast. The smoke has filtered down to the ground in some areas, creating hazy skies and reducing visibility.

Looking ahead to early next week, the cold front is forecast to move off into the Atlantic. This will set the stage for warmer and dry conditions for the eastern half of the country.

Tropical Activity Firing Up Next Week

The official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1. And right on schedule, meteorologists are predicting that tropical activity may begin to fire up late next week just in time for the Memorial Day weekend.

The southern branch of the jet stream is forecast to drop next week, bringing the chance of greater moisture to Florida. This movement could eventually create tropical activity in the form of torrential rain and severe storms. This tropical or subtropical development is most likely to take place in the ocean waters surrounding Florida as the holiday weekend approaches.

The east coast of Florida up through coastal Carolina is under the threat of several inches of rain by the end of May even if a tropical system does not take root. The weather pattern will also likely bring rough surf conditions over the weekend that officially kicks off the summer season. You will want to keep an eye on this developing forecast if your three-day weekend holiday plans take you to the beaches of Florida or the Southeast.

The first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is set to be called Arlene.

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