Dry Thunderstorms Will Raise Wildfire Threat in Southwest and Beyond

Posted: August 9, 2023 9:45 am

The wildfire danger is forecast to increase later this week in the Southwest as a series of dry thunderstorms make their way through the region. While these storms will not produce a significant amount of rain, they will carry the frequent lightning strikes and wind associated with fire development and spread. Here is what you need to know.

Higher Terrains in Southwest Most at Risk of Storms

These storms are predicted to fire up starting late Wednesday and continuing through Friday. While no part of the Southwest can count out the storm development, the higher terrains of central and southern portions of California will be the most at risk of seeing these thunderstorms. The timing of the storms could not be worse as the region braces for the start of the wildfire season.

By the weekend, you can expect the threat of the storm activity to move to the north and bring much of the Pacific Northwest into the potential impact zone.

The storms are going to be fueled by the remnants of Tropical Storm Eugene, a system that is currently making its way across the eastern Pacific. The storm is predicted to begin to lose wind intensity in the coming hours. What is left of the low pressure system will then move across California by early Thursday and serve as the base for the risk of dry thunderstorms.

A small amount of moisture will come along for the ride and lead to higher humidity levels throughout the Golden State to form these storms.

The heaviest rain is forecast to fall across the Sierra Nevada and down into the lower elevations of Southern California. However, a deficiency in moisture near the ground will mean that the lower elevations are not likely to see significant rain out of this feature.

Other States at Risk of Dry Thunderstorms

In addition to California, the storms will also impact Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado by the time they are done. As with California, the bulk of the activity will happen over the higher terrains. The peak afternoon heating hours will be the most likely time frame for these storms to develop each day.

Unfortunately, the sparse amount of moisture pairing with the frequent lightning strikes will increase the risk of wildfires. This wildfire season out West typically heats up in late July and continues through October. While the worst is yet to come, it has been a fairly calm start to the seasons, particularly when compared to the last few years.

According to the latest data release from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, there were 10 wildfires burning in the state as of early Monday. The largest fire began Sunday and has already burned over 5,000 acres in Kern County, located southwest of Fresno in the central part of the state.

A higher amount of rain and snow falling during the winter and spring months has helped to put a lid on fire development this year. However, forecasters warn that the increasingly dry conditions will serve to fuel more fires in the coming weeks. The massive amount of snowpack that built up over the winter in the Sierra Nevada is now starting to disappear, providing fertile ground for fires to start and spread across the dry vegetation.

The strong winds that often accompany these dry thunderstorms are another complicating factor. All it takes is one lightning strike pairing with a gust of wind to ignite a fire and support its expansion.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend and Next Week

The Pacific Northwest will be in the line of fire for a higher risk of wildfires heading into the weekend as the energy riding across the Sierra Nevada moves to the north. The northern edge of this mountain range will be ground zero for the chance of new fires on Saturday and Sunday. By the end of the weekend, the threat of the dry thunderstorms will expand into southern Oregon and up through Idaho and Wyoming.

A high pressure system anchored over the Northwest next week will stymie the development of these storms beginning Monday. This will hopefully give fire crews a chance to get ahead of any potential issues.

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