Dual Tropical Storms Philippe and Rina Churn Through the Atlantic

Posted: October 2, 2023 11:06 am

Despite the turning of the calendar from September to November, the tropics are still bursting with activity. This is typically the time of the year when both the Atlantic and the East Pacific basins start to slow down. However, it appears as if there are still more threats heading into the new month.

Tropical Storm Philippe Expected to Swirl Around the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Philippe came to life on September 23 in the central portions of the Atlantic Ocean. Since that time, the feature has been crawling to the west and toward the Caribbean and North American. A good amount of wind shear in this part of the basin has suppressed the storm’s intensification, preventing it from becoming a hurricane.

While Philippe is not expected to find favorable conditions for more strengthening in the coming days, it will still present numerous risks to the Caribbean. The northeastern Leeward Islands will see the first of these impacts to start the week.

Philippe is predicted to skirt past Dominica, Guadeloupe, and the U.S. Virgin and British Islands. These islands can expect widespread rainfall amounts totalling 1 – 2 inches. The farthest northeastern corner of the group of islands will likely see 2 – 4 inches.

Rainfall of this amount will raise the risk of localized flooding. In addition, wind gusts greater than 40 mph will also impact this part of the Caribbean, creating a good chance of localized power outages. These impacts are forecast to linger through Tuesday.

Unfortunately, some of these islands were recently impacted by Category 5 Hurricane Lee a few weeks ago. While the Leeward Islands did not sustain a direct strike from Lee, the outer rain bands and gusty winds brought moderate impact to the region.

Looking ahead to the middle of the week, forecasters anticipate that Philippe will travel into a part of the basin with lesser amounts of wind shear. This will give the storm a short time to potentially intensify into a hurricane. However, the storm will lose this intensity again by the end of the week as it moves across cooler ocean waters.

Tropical Storm Rina Churns Closer to Philippe

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rina is making its way closer to Philippe as it continues to the west. What was once a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa is now a storm named Rina. As of Sunday, Rina was packing top sustained winds of 40 mph.

The current forecast models predict that Rina will make a turn to the north by late Monday. This turn will bring it into a zone of cooler ocean waters that will likely send Rina back to the status of a tropical depression. There is also the chance that Rina and Philippe will travel close enough together that each path may change as a result of the interaction. Stay tuned as these storms approach each other to see how they develop and change direction.

What You Can Expect in the Tropics in October

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects that the tropics will remain active into October. There is an outside chance that the northeastern coast of the U.S. could see the reemergence of another tropical development early this week.

The arrival of El Niño conditions will translate to more wind shear, inhibiting the odds of tropical development in the open waters of the Atlantic. However, there is still a chance that areas closer to land with warmer waters and less disruptive wind shear will provide a fertile breeding ground for tropical features. This is typically the time of the season when tropical development happens organically closer to land.

Forecasters are also warning that the onset of El Niño will mean a greater chance of tropical development in the East Pacific. The zone south of Mexico is most likely to see a new system spring up in the first week of October. This means that portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico could see tropical moisture and rough surf conditions in the coming days.

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