Early Fall Heat Wave Coming to an End in Midwest and Beyond

Posted: October 3, 2023 3:00 pm

The early fall heat wave that has gripped the Midwest in recent days is about to come to an end as cooler temperatures and the return of wet conditions make their move into the region. When will the heat break and what can you expect for severe weather impacts? Read on for all of the details.

Heat Wave Delivers Record High Temperatures

It has been a scorcher of a week for much of the Midwest, particularly when compared to historical averages. This heat will linger into the early parts of the week before it finally breaks. You can expect temperatures to hover in the mid 80s to lower 90s for the bulk of the North Central U.S. and into the Great Lakes. However, the worst of heat has already passed the Midwest.

The nation’s heartland saw the mercury soar between 15 and 35 degrees above what is normal for this time of the year. A number of new daily high records were set on Sunday to kick off the first day of October.

The temperature hit a sizzling 92 degrees in Minneapolis on Sunday. It was so warm that officials were forced to cancel the annual Twin Cities Marathon that was supposed to happen on Sunday morning. Over 20,000 runners were impacted by this cancelation, the first time in history that the event has had to be called off because of weather. The historical average for the first day of October in the Minneapolis area lands in the mid to upper 60s.

It was even hotter to the west in Fargo, North Dakota. This city recorded a high of 96 degrees on Sunday, breaking the record for this date. The average high temperature in Fargo in early October is about 65 degrees, speaking to the magnitude of this heat wave.

There were also a number of overnight temperature records that fell this weekend. Several communities in South Dakota set record-high overnight temperatures as conditions remained warm after the sun went down.

A northward surge in the jet stream has been responsible for the record heat. This bulge has brought up the warmer temperatures from the south while the high pressure system has kept the moisture away.

The heat is forecast to linger through Tuesday. Those participating in outdoor activities will want to continue to remain vigilant about the potential impacts of the heat. Be sure to be diligent about remaining hydrated and using sunscreen when spending time outside. Humidity levels will also remain high on Tuesday, making it feel even warmer than the temperature may indicate.

When to Expect the Storms to Kick Up

While some of the far western portions of the region saw the development of rain showers and thunderstorms late Monday, the risk will increase in areas to the east as the storm system ejects down from the Rockies and spreads.

Tuesday’s severe weather threats will expand into South Dakota, Nebraska, the western half of Iowa, and southern Minnesota. These storm cells will spread to the south into Texas, encompassing a large potential impact zone. Primary threats associated with this weather maker include localized damaging winds that could hit up to 80 mph, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

It will take longer for these storms to move into the Great Lakes, meaning that Tuesday afternoon and evening should still be dry for cities such as Milwaukee and Chicago. For example, the Major League Baseball play-off game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers should see temperatures in the 70s for the first pitch.

Wednesday and Thursday will bring the stormy conditions farther to the east, impacting the Great Lakes region while the Midwest sees a decrease in activity. For example, Chicago is forecast to see clouds begin to build on Wednesday with the chance of thunderstorms hanging around on Thursday in the Windy City.

Detroit will enjoy sunny conditions through Wednesday but rain will be the story on Thursday and Friday. The rain will also hold off until Thursday in places such as Indianapolis.

Fluctuating Temperatures in the Forecast

What will be most noticeable in this weather shift will be the dramatically cooler temperatures. A cold front will bring the mercury down by about 40 degrees in some places. For instance, the Twin Cities will see high temperature readings in the low 50s after seeing the mercury soar to over 90 degrees on Sunday.

Another bit of a warmup is in store for the region later in the weekend. Although the temperatures will not rival what the area saw last week, it will be enough of a change to feel like a difference when compared to the chilly temperatures of this week.

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