El Niño Gaining Strength According to Latest NOAA Report, Changing the Long-Range Forecast for the U.S.

Posted: November 13, 2023 4:21 pm

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Climatologists are noting that the current El Niño phase is intensifying, changing the landscape of the winter weather forecast. What does this intensification mean for what the U.S. should expect in the coming months? Read on for all of the details.

How El Niño Typically Influences Winter Weather in North America

The beginning of the meteorological winter is right around the corner. How will the strengthening El Niño phase affect the winter weather for North America? It could mean more snow and colder temperatures for a large part of the U.S.

El Niño is a phase defined by warmer than average ocean waters circulating near the equator in the eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean. The temperatures need to hit at least 0.9 of a degree over the norm for an extended period of time in order to qualify as an El Niño pattern. This phase officially hit the benchmark needed in the early part of June, continuing to strengthen into the fall season. This is the first time since 2018-2019 that North America will be under the influence of El Niño during the winter months.

NOAA Reports a Strengthening El Niño Pattern

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) noted on Thursday that a strong El Niño pattern is continuing to indicate that it will gain intensity heading into winter. The NOAA bulletin said that there is a higher than 55% chance that what they define as a “strong” El Niño phase will linger through March of 2024. In addition, there is a 35% chance that the pattern will land in the category of “historically strong.”

The shift to a El Niño phase will be a significant change from the last three winters that were marked by La Niña and its impacts. The change in the phases will greatly influence the overall weather pattern throughout North America in the coming months.

Despite El Niño getting its start in the far Pacific Ocean, the impacts will be felt well into the U.S. The southern portions of the country can expect to see a greater amount of moisture than usual thanks to the dominance of El Niño. Meanwhile, the northern Plains, the Midwest, and the Great Lakes region will likely experience a milder winter with less rain and snow than is typically present. The West Coast should prepare for the greatest amount of moisture to set up across California instead of the normally wet Pacific Northwest.

What about the East Coast? Forecasters are predicting that this part of the country will be under the gun for major snowstorms thanks to the influence of El Niño. For example, forecasters are predicting that cities such as New York City and Philadelphia will experience a snowier than usual winter season thanks to the growing influence of El Niño.

It is important to note that not all El Niño patterns behave the same. This is why forecasting the impacts of this pattern is not an exact science. Only time will tell how this pattern influences the overall winter weather for North America.

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