El Niño is Predicted to Influence Weather Patterns Around the World

Posted: March 24, 2023 1:40 pm

Now that the La Niña climate pattern has been declared to be officially over, what can we expect with the El Niño phase? Read on for a detailed explanation about El Niño and what it will mean for the weather in your corner of the world.

Understanding El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Its Phases

An area deep in the tropical Pacific Ocean shapes weather patterns around the world. Known formally by experts as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this pattern creates widespread differences in ocean temperatures, influencing how weather across the planet unfolds.

The ENSO pattern is defined by three distinct stages. During the neutral state, the sea surface temperatures in this part of the Pacific hover near the historical average. During a La Niña phase, water temperatures trend colder than the average, pairing with higher surface winds.

The third El Niño state happens when ocean waters throughout the tropical Pacific inch up to levels above average for a long period of time. In addition, surface winds are typically lighter during the El Niño phase. These winds also shift direction, flowing from west to east across the equator.

The bulk of the last three years have been defined by the La Niña phase. However, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently declared that this streak was over. While El Niño has not taken hold yet, there is a general consensus among climatologists that this phase will begin to develop over the coming months.

What to Expect with El Niño

The change to an El Niño phase will be precipitated by increasing sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This transition will influence the number and intensity of tropical weather events as well as impact the severity of the winter season. In a normal cycle, El Niño usually reaches its peak during the months of November and December.

In general terms, a winter under the grips of El Niño translates to stormier conditions for the southern and southeastern portions of the U.S. This is because the El Niño phase creates a split jet stream that ushers in more tropical moisture northward. This pattern also means a wetter winter for many areas of California, Texas, and Florida.

Moving into the Northeast, an El Niño pattern typically means warmer temperatures in the winter. However, this does not mean that the region will see a lesser amount of winter storms.

El Niño’s Impact on Hurricane Season

Experts also look to the severity of the El Niño phase to determine an outlook on the Atlantic hurricane season. The El Niño phase results in stronger vertical wind shear in places in the Gulf of Mexico, the tropical Atlantic, and the Caribbean. This shear mitigates the odds of tropical development.

Conversely, an absence of wind shear generally allows tropical events to strengthen and grow. This is what happens when the region sees a hurricane season with a higher number of tropical events. It is important to note that not all El Niños are the same. Because the actual El Niño phase can also vary in intensity and duration, it makes sense that the severity of the hurricane season will also fluctuate.

A typical El Niño pattern lasts between six and eight months, however, they can also linger up to 18 months. It is also not unusual for the phase to weaken during the spring months only to come back stronger during the summer.

The latest technology gives climatologists the tools to predict the odds of an El Niño pattern up to a year in advance. This data is provided by the Tropical Pacific Observing System, a tool that monitors the conditions in the ocean and atmosphere and how they are changing and interacting with each other.

This knowledge is useful when helping people to plan for the possibility of extreme weather events. By determining these patterns, scientists are able to predict the probability of a severe hurricane season and other potential natural disasters.

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