First Tropical Storm of the Year Could be Brewing in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted: April 7, 2023 7:38 am

Despite the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season not kicking off until June 1, forecasters are warning that a rare April tropical event may be firing up in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Will this feature threaten the U.S.? Here is what the experts are predicting.

Rare April Tropical Development on the Horizon?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico with the worry that a tropical storm will impact the southern U.S. in the coming days. Even if this area of concern does not strengthen into a named storm, it will likely bring heavy rain to a large swath of the Gulf Coast.

While tropical events have been brewing earlier and earlier as a result of climate change, it is still unusual for one to form as early as April. The last named storm to pop up in April was 2017’s Tropical Storm Arlene. This storm originated in the central Atlantic. There have been no storms to form this early in the Gulf of Mexico. Ironically, the first name on the 2022 Atlantic storm list is also Arlene.

Factors Influencing the Potential Formation of This Storm

Forecasters are pointing to a number of benchmarks that must be met for this April storm to come to fruition. A dip in the jet stream on tap in the coming days could provide the first ingredient. This movement could produce what experts refer to as a closed low. A closed low that hangs around the Gulf of Mexico for an extended period of time could create an area of low pressure that takes on classic tropical characteristics.

The area of low pressure will also need to find sea surface temperatures in the Gulf that are warm enough to support further development. Current water temperatures are hovering around the 70-degree mark near the Louisiana coast and into the low 80s in the zone between Mexico and Cuba. These readings are trending about 5 – 8 degrees higher than the historical average for this time of the year, making the development of a tropical feature more possible.

On average, water temperatures need to land in the mid to upper 70s for a storm to continue its development into a named feature. Because the readings are not quite that high near the coastal areas, it is more likely that this area of concern remains a subtropical storm should further development occur.

At this time, it is expected that any storm development would happen close to the Gulf Coast of Florida down into the Keys and up through the Louisiana coast. The timing would likely land around the middle of next week.

Potential Impacts of This Feature

Florida will be the primary area under the gun for heavy rainfall. This is a welcome weather pattern for a state that has not picked up sufficient moisture over the winter months. In addition to the rain associated with this system, it will also create winds that produce rough surf conditions and strong rip currents.

While the rain for Florida will be beneficial, parts of the Gulf Coast are calling for mercy from the persistent moisture as of late. A long stretch of coastline from northeastern Texas up through the Carolinas is already forecast to get hit with meaningful precipitation this weekend. Any additional moisture next week could trigger flooding issues.

The low could additionally produce isolated tornadoes and waterspouts even if it does not develop into a named storm. Thunderstorms packing lightning could also pose a problem for spring breakers trying to enjoy the beaches in this part of the country.

Although it will be wet across the South over the next several days, the Plains and the Northeast can look forward to building warmth and sunshine for the second week of April.

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