Gulf Coast and Southeast Forecast to See Train of Wet Weather This Week

Posted: January 30, 2023 12:46 pm

It is setting up to be another stormy week across much of the southern U.S., bringing weather impacts that feel more like spring than the dead of winter. Here is what you need to know about the upcoming active weather pattern for this part of the country as the month of January comes to an end.

Gulf of Mexico Moisture Fuels Rainy Week for South

As is typical for this part of the U.S., the Gulf of Mexico is the source of the moisture-rich air that is fueling these storms. The setup that is in place now will support the development of multiple rounds of heavy rain and the potential of severe storms.

The storms started to fire up on Sunday, ruining the end of the weekend for many people hoping to get outside and enjoy the relatively moderate temperatures. Sunday’s rain and severe weather was the result of an area of low pressure that began to form over the state of Texas.

This weather system set up the winds in the region to bring the warm and moist air anchored over the Gulf of Mexico to the north. This flow of moisture is what is expected to deliver the threat of rain and thunderstorms to migrate from Texas into the Carolinas during the first part of the work week.

Houston was one of the first cities to see these risks on Sunday. Sufficient amounts of wind shear in the atmosphere will keep this risk hanging around for the Gulf Coast throughout much of the week.

Weather Impacts to Start the Week

The areas most likely to experience severe weather to start the week include southeast Texas and the coastal communities of Louisiana. Residents can expect weather impacts including damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and isolated tornadoes. However, this week’s storms will likely be less severe in nature than what the region saw last week.

The torrential rain is forecast to move to the east by Monday morning, triggering a potentially messy commute for parts of Alabama and Georgia. Do not rule out the risk of localized flooding along this part of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

Although the rain will not likely be heavy enough at one time to create flooding events, this is a part of the country that is susceptible to what weather experts call “training.” This term is used to describe rainfall that moves over the same area of land repeatedly in a short amount of time. The cumulative effect of the precipitation is what increases the risk of flooding.

Widespread rain totaling about an inch of rain is in the cards for a large swath of land stretching from the southeastern corner of Texas and into coastal Carolina. Isolated areas that experience the training effect may measure rainfall amounts up to 3 inches.

This weather pattern could create travel delays on significant portions of interstates 10, 65, and 85. You will find colder air in place to the north of this storm track. The dramatic drop in the mercury will make it possible for freezing rain to develop from Texas, into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and through the mid-Atlantic at times this week.

Forecasters are calling for slightly drier conditions on Tuesday. However, the storm track is expected to ignite once again by the middle of the week and hang on for a few days. This will translate to widespread soggy conditions for much of the Southeast throughout the week.

Pattern a Continuation of Wet January

It has already been an unusually wet start to the new year in this region. For instance Houston has seen rainfall that is now at nearly 140% of average for this point in January. The city also saw an EF-3 tornado last week. Farther to the east in Atlanta, the city’s 4.59 inches of rain this month is also about 140% of normal. These numbers will almost certainly increase over the last few days of the month.

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