Homebrew Tropical Weather System a Possibility This Week Off Southeastern Coast of U.S.

Posted: September 19, 2023 9:45 am

Forecasters are warning that the U.S. East Coast could be under the threat of a potential new tropical weather system that may develop off the southeastern coastline. Here is what you need to know about this potential homebrewed tropical weather event.

Homebrew Tropical Weather Event a Possibility This Week in Southeast

The threat of Hurricane Lee has passed, however, meteorologists are now eyeing an area in the Atlantic from the northeastern coast of Florida up through North Carolina for signs of tropical characteristics. This zone could be the home of the next tropical weather event to send heavy rain, thunderstorms, and high winds to the Eastern Seaboard.

Weather experts refer to these events that develop from stalled fronts as homebrewed storm systems. The storm will likely develop as energy circulating in the atmosphere churns out an area of low pressure in the waters of the southeastern coast.

The exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf Stream current from the Caribbean will help to encourage the production of tropical characteristics originating in this zone of low pressure. The sea surface temperatures off the Southeast are still hovering in the 80s, providing fertile ground for potential tropical weather development.

The question that remains is if the area of low pressure will have the time to take on tropical characteristics before it moves inland this weekend. Development will be cut off if the system moves over the Carolinas too quickly. In addition, the wind shear circulating above the zone of low pressure could mitigate the chances of tropical development. At the very least, this expected wind shear will prevent the system from intensifying into a hurricane.

Should a tropical depression develop, it would likely happen on Friday or Saturday. The next two names on the list for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season are Ophelia and Phillippe.

Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds a Good Possibility Regardless of Tropical Weather Development

Even if this area of concern does not develop into a named storm, there is a good chance that heavy rain will impact the Southeast and up through the mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. This moisture could move to the north through the weekend, bringing more heavy rain to the Northeast and into New England.

Additionally, a system that is set to form in the Midwest this week would bring in the moisture from the weather maker off the Southeast coastline. Should this happen, more rain could impact the central Appalachians.

The coastal areas of the Southeast will be under the threat of waterspouts and tornadoes if this area of low pressure develops tropical characteristics. Urban and flash flooding will also be concerns as the rain begins to fall.

Americans hoping to squeeze the last out of the warm weather and head to the beach this weekend will want to be mindful of these impacts. Rough seas could spoil many plans to take one last dip in the ocean before the weather becomes prohibitive.

Hurricane Nigel Forms in Atlantic

Else in the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Nigel was born early Monday morning. Nigel is now the fifth hurricane of the season for the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Nigel has the potential of strengthening into a major hurricane in the coming days.

As of Monday morning, Nigel was a Category 1 storm with winds of 80 mph. The system was spinning about 935 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda at a speed of 12 mph. Nigel is predicted to continue to move to the northeast this week on a path that it will take into the warm waters of the central Atlantic. These warm waters will provide the fuel for further strengthening.

Predicting Nigel’s Path

The big question is whether Nigel will impact any major islands in the Caribbean or the U.S. The latest forecasting models predict that Nigel will be pulled to the north in the next few days, moving it away from Bermuda and the Caribbean. This path would also take it well away from the U.S. coastline.

However, the storm could end up large enough to usher in dangerous rip currents and rough sea conditions to Bermuda by the middle of the week. If the eye of the storm moves farther to the west, Bermuda could be under the gun for rain and strong winds.

The same beach hazards could be an issue for the U.S. coastline as well. You will want to keep an eye on this hurricane path as well as the homebrew system if your upcoming weekend plans have you at the beach on the East Coast.

There is also the small chance that Nigel survives the long trip up the Atlantic basin. This could translate to impacts to the United Kingdom this weekend if Nigel moves to the northeast. The United Kingdom may also see the leftover impacts of what is now Tropical Rainstorm Lee by the middle of this week.

Atlantic Basin Still a Hotbed of Activity

The tropical weather activity is not slowing down across the Atlantic. What was once Hurricane Margot fell apart in the north-central Atlantic over the weekend. But the leftover moisture could bring more rain showers to the Azores later in the week.

The NHC will also be watching the eastern portions of the Atlantic this week as another tropical wave emerges from the coast of Africa. The official end of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is not until November 30.

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