How Climate Change is Increasing the Number of Home Runs

Posted: April 11, 2023 3:00 pm

While the impacts of climate change have been well documented, one issue that most people have not considered is how rising temperatures have increased the number of home runs by Major League Baseball (MLB) players. Here is what the research is telling us.

Results of New Study Demonstrate Higher Volume of Home Runs Due to Weather Patterns

A new study recently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society is detailing that more than 500 home runs since 2010 can be traced back to unseasonably warm temperature readings. There is no doubt that the number of home runs has increased in recent years. Although some of these changes can be connected to stronger players and a change in the construction of the actual baseballs, the incremental rise in temperatures is another influencing factor of this increase.

The study’s authors say that the expected climb of these temperatures could result in climate change being responsible for about 10% of all home runs by the year 2100. That number would translate to hundreds of more home runs hit over each baseball season when compared to the first 20 years of this century.

How Warmer Air Influences Trajectory of Baseballs

You do not need a science degree to understand the physics of the connection between climate change and an increase in home runs. Warmer temperatures naturally correlate to air that is less dense. This means that there is more space in between the molecules that float in the air. As a result, a baseball will travel farther in warmer weather with air that is less dense.

This same law of physics explains when airlines choose to fly passenger planes at an altitude of at least 30,000 feet. A lower air density means that airplanes are more efficient, saving money on fuel costs. Flying planes lower in the atmosphere would increase drag and the cost of fuel.

Diving Into the Data

The lead author of the study looked at data from over 100,000 MLB games, including 220,000 hits. When this data was compared to unseasonably warm temperatures, it became apparent that games that were contested in open stadiums during daylight hours saw more home runs when compared to games played at night or in venues with a dome.

For instance, home runs are expected to continue to increase at Wrigley Field, the home of the Chicago Cubs. This is because the team holds a fewer amount of games at night and the stadium is open air. Conversely, the home run numbers are likely not going to be impacted as a result of global warming in domed stadiums such as Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, Florida.

Another study from the University of Illinois found an increase of about 2% in home runs for every 1-degree Celsius boost in air temperature. The two studies lend more credence to the fact that global warming may indeed be causing baseballs to be hit longer.

While home runs are certainly an exciting element of a baseball game, too many of these events would dilute its overall impact. As such, the authors of the study said that MLB might want to institute its own changes to combat this increase.

Ideas offered up included using more domed stadiums to shield the integrity of the game from the weather or moving more games to the evening hours. These solutions would mitigate the number of home runs brought about by climate change.

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