Is Tropical Storm Fred on the Horizon off the Southeast Coast of the US?

Posted: July 24, 2021 4:49 am

Dry Air and Wind Shear Could Mitigate Threat of Tropical Weather

It would appear as if the quiet and calm conditions in the Atlantic basin are about to disappear. Forecasters are now watching an area of low pressure that is located off the southeastern coast of the US.

Details of the New Development

Shower and thunderstorm activity began to build up during the Friday morning hours, raising the red flag that this feature, now called 90L, could take on tropical characteristics. This area is moving into waters that are conducive for further development over the next few days. As of mid-day Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put the chance that this area develops into a tropical feature at 30% through the next five days.

The precipitation started to organize better late Wednesday and into Thursday. The feature is currently located off the coast of Georgia and northeastern Florida. Over the last 24 hours, the thunderstorm activity picked up with some squalls now showing signs of the spin and circulation associated with tropical weather systems.

Current Environmental Conditions

At this point, the waters in the Atlantic near the system are certainly warm enough to support tropical development east of the Sunshine State. In most cases, water temperatures of over 79 degrees are needed to support tropical development. Current sea surface temperatures surrounding the development are in the range of 82 to 84 degrees.

However, a significant amount of wind shear may work to counteract the warm waters and suppress the development of the storm. A high amount of wind shear in the atmosphere hinders tropical development and may even break up a system that has already shown organization.

In addition, hurricane experts are pointing to a wave of dry air that is coming in from the north and dropping down to the Gulf Stream. This injection of dry air may combine with the wind shear to mitigate any chances of potential development of this system. The next few days will be telling when looking to predict if this feature has the conditions needed to continue to fuel its growth.

Potential Impacts This Weekend

Even if the dry air dropping down from the north pushes the showers and storm activity away from the southeastern coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas, thundershowers are forecast to intensify through the northern tier of Florida and in the Bahamas throughout the weekend.

These storms have the potential to deliver heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning strikes. While South Florida will likely see the bulk of the severe weather, Central Florida is not out of the danger zone.

Even if these storms do not materialize over land, the effects of the disturbance will bring strong rip currents throughout the Atlantic coastal beaches of Florida, Georgia, and up into the Carolinas. Those headed to these beaches this weekend need to be aware of the threat of rapidly changing weather conditions if the feature continues to strengthen over the coming days.

There will also be the potential of isolated tornadoes in South Florida beginning on Sunday and continuing through Monday.

2021 Atlantic Season in a Snapshot

This system will take the name Fred if it continues to develop into a tropical feature. Fred would be the sixth named storm of the 2021 season. It is not unusual to see a calm period during the middle of the summer. Meteorologists are warning that this time of quiet generally leads to an increase in tropical activity heading into the end of the summer and the beginning of fall.

Forecasters at the NHC are predicting that dry and dusty air coming off of the coast of Africa is merging with an infusion of dry air to limit activity throughout the rest of the Atlantic and the Caribbean over the next several days.

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