La Niña Influencing Winter Weather for Third Consecutive Year

Posted: December 2, 2022 3:32 pm

Although the astronomical winter season does not start until December 21, the meteorological winter began on December 1 in the Northern Hemisphere. Some residents across the U.S. have been dealing with winter conditions for weeks while others are still basking in the beauty of late fall.

This will be the third consecutive La Niña winter, influencing the overall weather pattern. What can you expect over the next three months covering the official meteorological winter from December 1 through February 28?

Looking at Snowfall Amount Predictions

Forecasters are predicting that the snow machine will fire up with regularity across the eastern U.S. by the middle of December, however, a pattern of drier weather will take hold through about the middle of January. It will be at this time that you can expect the typical threat of nor’easters to be a risk through the end of the winter.

Residents living in the mid-Atlantic and Tennessee and Ohio valleys are forecast to see snowfall amounts below average this year. The Upper Midwest has already been in the line of fire for heavy snow this year and that trend is set to continue with above-normal snowfall predictions in the long-range forecast.

New England is another area predicted to come in above average for snow by the time the winter season wraps up. For instance, while Boston may land slightly above normal for snow this season, New York City is predicted to see a bit less. Only time will tell if these predictions come to fruition.

Those hoping for a white Christmas will be happy to know that forecasters are predicting that the northern tier of the U.S. will see a higher than average chance of seeing flakes fly on the holiday.

Arctic Air a Mainstay This Season

The first widespread Arctic air blast is on tap for the middle of December. While some parts of the northern U.S. have already experienced this bitterly cold weather, the rest of the nation has been spared its impacts so far. Experts are predicting that the Arctic air will be a regular invader throughout the latter part of the winter season.

In addition, the polar vortex could migrate as far south as the middle of the country in February, bringing the potential of record low temperatures to the Gulf Coast. The latter part of the winter will also bring a greater chance of snow to the Upper Midwest and the central Plains.

Although this wintry weather may disrupt travel and life in general, this part of the U.S. is in desperate need for precipitation. The Mississippi River Valley will welcome the moisture falling on the nation’s primary waterway. Even if the moisture falls as snow, it will still help to refill the dry river.

According to the December 1 report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, the wide swath of land between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains is under the designation of a moderate to severe drought. Some areas of the central Plains are in an extreme drought. Farmers are hoping for a snowy winter that will deliver crucial moisture to the ground ahead of the planting season.

Severe Weather Odds for the Southeast

Farther to the south, it will be severe weather wreaking havoc this winter. The storm track that will bring snow to the northern half of the country will be responsible for the higher chances of severe storms across the Southeast and the Gulf Coast. The long-range forecast is showing that February will be particularly stormy for this corner of the U.S.

Heading Out West

After a fairly dry fall, the moisture machine is kicking into high gear across a large portion of the West Coast. A series of storms to end the fall and begin the winter have ushered in much-needed rain and snow to the region. However, forecasters are cautioning that this may not be the trend for the entirety of the season.

The main storm track will be positioned farther to the north in British Columbia, Canada. This will put Washington state in the bullseye for an active weather pattern. The Seattle area saw a few inches of snow already this week, a departure from normal for this time of the year.

It will be less likely that the storm track plunges far enough south to deliver consistent moisture to California. This means that it is not likely that the winter storm machine will significantly alleviate the ongoing drought conditions along the West Coast.

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