La Niña Pattern to Drive Fall Weather in Canada

Posted: August 26, 2022 9:20 am

The autumnal equinox arrives on September 22, giving everyone in the Northern Hemisphere an excuse to break out the cozy sweaters and the pumpkin spice. As will be the case in the U.S., the La Niña weather pattern will be the influencing factor in the conditions throughout Canada this fall. Here is a detailed look at the long-range fall forecast for Canada.

Impacts of La Niña

Before we dive into the Canadian fall forecast, it is important to understand the impacts that the La Niña weather pattern has on the daily weather. For the third year in a row, La Niña is forecast to be in place heading into the fall months.

During a La Niña year, sea surface temperatures throughout the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean plummet to cooler than average readings. This cooling of the ocean waters can impact the weather thousands of miles in the distance. The cold water pushes the jet stream farther to the north. While this movement of the jet stream tends to create drought conditions in the southern tier of the U.S., it generally brings more rain than normal to the Pacific Northwest and up through Canada.

Additionally, a La Niña year also ushers in cooler temperature readings to the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada. What does this mean for the specific regions of Canada? Read on for the detailed forecast.

Atlantic Canada Still Under Threat of Tropical Weather

Although it has been relatively quiet in the Atlantic when it comes to tropical weather, hurricane experts are still warning those in Atlantic Canada to not think that the threat has passed. The Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak in September, meaning that the worst could still be around the corner.

The warmer than usual ocean waters south of Atlantic Canada could trigger a greater threat of a tropical storm or hurricane coming on shore as far as Newfoundland. Because of the La Niña pattern, these sea surface temperatures are forecast to hover in this higher range throughout the autumn months. These readings will leave Atlantic Canada vulnerable to tropical development that heads its way.

Potentially Storm in Western Canada

Also because of the La Niña pattern, the storm track is forecast to be exceptionally active in the western portion of the country. An active storm track setting up in the Pacific Ocean will set its sights on British Columbia in the fall, delivering above average rainfall and cooler days.

Residents in the area surely have not forgotten the historic flooding that hit British Columbia in the fall of 2021. Thousands of families were displaced as the flood waters washed away roads and bridges and significantly disrupted travel throughout the region. While it is not likely that flooding of this magnitude will be in the cards this year, forecasters are relatively certain that British Columbia will be under the gun for a stormy fall.

High winds could also be a factor as the storm track brings in gusty conditions. The good news is that the wetter conditions will likely mitigate the impacts of high winds on wildfire season.

In addition, the predicted cooler temperatures will also help to tamper any wildfire development. This cooler than usual air is forecast across the northwestern corner of Canada. The coolest readings will settle in throughout northern British Columbia and in the Yukon Territory. The average temperatures in Vancouver are forecast to be normal for the fall, however, the city is expected to see a greater amount of rain than usual.

All of these conditions may trigger an earlier onset of snow in coastal British Columbia and in the Rocky Mountains.

Mild in the Prairies

The middle of the country is forecast to experience a normal fall pattern. This is particularly true for the Canadian Prairies across Alberta. The region is forecast to experience a normal amount of rain and average temperatures. For instance, most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect a normal amount of precipitation. The exception will be the northern tier of Manitoba that may see higher than average amounts of moisture.

The long-range forecast also shows a mild fall when it comes to temperature readings through the central and eastern prairies. It is forecast to be slightly warmer than usual throughout the bulk of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This means that cities such as Regina and Winnipeg will likely enjoy the fall weather.

Brilliant Fall Colors in Store for Eastern Canada

Like the prairies, much of eastern Canada is also forecast to see warmer than average temperatures heading through the fall months. The Maritime provinces of New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia will also see a warmer than normal autumn. In addition, Quebec and much of Ontario can expect to see drier conditions. Because of this, areas of southern Ontario may see a higher wildfire risk.

Because the ground is forecast to be so dry, this means that the temperature may drop more at night. As a result, residents can expect a good amount of early season frosts or freezes.

The good news is that the warmer temperatures will encourage a brilliant fall foliage season. However, the warm weather may delay the start of the prime leaf peeping season.

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