Latest on Tropical Storm Sean and Potential of Tropical Storm Tammy

Posted: October 15, 2023 9:57 am

The list of names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is beginning to head to the end of the alphabet with forecasters eyeing another potential area of development in the basin. Here is the latest on what is happening in the tropics heading into the middle of October.

Latest on Tropical Storm Sean

Tropical Storm Sean is barely hanging on in the Atlantic but another zone of activity could turn into the next named storm, going by the name of Tammy. So far there have been 18 named storms in the Atlantic basin this season.

Sean has been fluctuating between a tropical depression and tropical storm since early this week as wind shear in the central Atlantic tries to break it up. The feature is moving to the northwest and was spinning about a thousand miles to the east of San Juan, Puerto to end the week.

The forecast models indicate that Sean will continue its journey to the northwest in the coming days, gradually weakening further as it encounters more wind shear. The latest satellite images demonstrate that Sean is having problems staying together as its center of circulation drifts away from the highest concentration of thunderstorm activity.

Although Sean is not expected to intensify, it could still remain a tropical depression or rainstorm through the duration of the weekend. This means that some portions of the Caribbean could be in line for significant moisture and winds. For instance, the Leeward Islands could potentially experience a surge of tropical moisture by the middle of next week.

Second Feature to Monitor

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring a tropical wave that recently pushed off the coast of Africa. This feature is currently spinning south of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern portion of the Atlantic. This wave is forecast to organize and strengthen in the coming days as it moves into a part of the basin with warm waters and little to no wind shear working to break it up.

As such, forecasters have predicted a high chance of tropical development out of this feature between October 16 and 19. Should this prediction come to fruition, Tropical Storm Tammy would become the 19th named feature of the season.

The models are still unclear about where this potential storm would journey. A large area of high pressure currently anchored over the northern tier of the Atlantic Ocean will influence how this storm behaves. The system could either remain to the south and head toward the Lesser Antilles or it could track farther north and remain out in the open waters away from land.

Any potential impacts from this weather maker would not likely be an issue until late next week or the weekend.

Neither of these systems pose any direct threat to land at this time. However, it is possible that they could stay together longer enough to strengthen and turn in a different direction. Should the latest area of development turn into a named feature, there would be just two names left on the official list, leaving Vince and Whitney as possibilities.

Designated List of Names Beginning to Run Out

An average tropical season in the Atlantic basin offers up 14 named storms. This means that it is no surprise that the designated list of names is starting to run out. In the past, the Greek alphabet would be used to name storms after the 21st name was used. However, this rule was changed in 2021 with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) deciding to simply add a supplemental list of another 21 names to use. The first name on this list for 2023 is Adria.

The official end date of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is November 30. While storms can certainly form after this date, you can expect a drastic drop in activity once the end of November passes.

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