Midwest and Northeast Forecast to See Spring Snow According to Long-Range Forecast

Posted: February 12, 2023 2:20 am

While it may seem like the dead of winter, the first signs of spring are already in the air. Meteorological spring kicks off on March 1. What will the season have in store across the country? Here is a look at the latest prediction for what spring of 2023 will bring to the eastern and central U.S.

Spring Snow a Good Possibility for the Northeast and Midwest

Although the Northeast has not seen much snowfall this season, that could change with the arrival of spring. Forecasters are warning to not read too much into the springlike weather set to impact the region at the end of February. The winter weather will likely be back, bringing the chance of snow to the Northeast in March and April.

In addition, the long-range forecast is predicting another influx of the polar vortex at the beginning of March. Should this happen, frigid air would come spilling down from the Arctic Circle and into the Midwest and the Northeast. This cold air would support the development of springtime snow.

With sparse snowfall accumulation for many of the most populated cities along the Interstate 95 corridor so far this winter, March could end up being the snowiest month of the winter season for the Northeast. While it is not unusual to see nor’easters fire up in the early spring months, the snow may catch people off guard after going so long without any significant accumulation.

The chance of an early spring nor’easter may be fueled by the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. These warm waters off of the East Coast are prone to help to intensify nor’easters as they take root. This means that any storms that do form off the Atlantic Seaboard could strengthen quickly before slamming into land between the mid-Atlantic and New England.

It will likely be a roller coaster of temperatures in the Northeast and the Midwest once spring begins. This may make it difficult for farmers and gardeners to plan their growing season without the fear of a late-season freeze. The temperature swings will be the most severe across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the southern Appalachians, and down into the Gulf Coast and the mid-Mississippi Valley.

Lastly, the extended spring forecast is predicting another significant mud season in the eastern third of the U.S. As the ground thaws, the low evaporation rates and additional moisture will trigger muddy conditions over the next few months.

Severe Weather in the Cards for Plains and Gulf Coast States

The Plains states and the Gulf Coast will see a continuation of the severe weather of the winter throughout the spring. It has already been an exceptionally stormy start to 2023 for much of this region with even more severe weather forecast for when spring really gets going.

Despite the strong start to the year, forecasters are still predicting that March of 2023 will tally fewer storms than what the third month of the year saw in 2022. Forecasters are also predicting extended lulls between the severe weather outbreaks this spring with the least amount of storms popping up in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

The most likely time for a break in the severe weather outbreaks will take place toward the end of March and into the early days of April. This lull will come at the hands of more stable and cooler air filtering in through the Plains and the Midwest. However, do not count out more severe weather outbreaks. The long-range forecast is predicting more stormy conditions for the middle section of the country once May rolls around. This is a typical pattern for this time of the year.

Like the last few years, the worst of the impacts are expected to ignite outside of the original Tornado Alley region. Instead, you can expect the bulk of the tornadic activity to shift slightly to the east. The ongoing drought across the Midwest and the High Plains is partly to blame for the track to the east.

Despite the lower number of predicted tornadoes for the nation’s heartland, Tornado Alley is still forecast to see its fair share of thunderstorms. This rain will be welcome news for the areas still dealing with drought conditions heading into the dry summer months.

Flooding a Concern for the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains

The biggest weather complication for the spring in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains could be flooding. The region has seen a higher than average amount of snow this winter season. This will translate to great snowmelt as the mercury begins to rise, triggering the potential of severe flooding.

This melting snow and its impacts will stretch down through the Red River watershed and into the Mississippi River Valley. The Mississippi River can certainly use the extra water after levels plummeted to historically low measurements last fall. The water levels in this important river are forecast to continue to rise this spring as more rain moves through the Ohio Valley and down to the Gulf Coast.

Stay tuned for a look at the spring forecast for the western half of the nation and how a weakening of the La Niña weather pattern may impact this long-range forecast.

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