More Robust Tropical Wave Activity from Africa Heating Up the Tropics

Posted: June 17, 2023 12:30 pm

Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are on high alert, watching for potential storm development in the Atlantic basin and beyond. Here is what the short-term and long-range forecast for tropical activity is looking like these days.

Tropical Wave Forecast to Emerge From Africa

Forecasters are monitoring several areas of the Atlantic Ocean, including a spot of potential development in the central portion of the basin and an area near the East Coast of the U.S.

There are also possible areas of concern in the East Pacific, anpart of the world that has not seen any named storms yet this season. Tropical Storm Arlene is the only named storm to have formed in the Atlantic this year, a season that officially kicked off on June 1.

The year 2023 has already been a bit of an anomaly as it relates to tropical weather development. The season has seen a greater amount of tropical waves coming off of the coast of Africa and moving to the west across the basin than is typical for this early in the year.

These waves generally do not get going until the middle of August during the peak of the season.

However, experts are warning that a more robust amount of tropical wave activity coming from Africa could translate to more tropical features earlier in the year. A lack of dust circulating off of the Sahara

Desert is being credited for boosting sea surface temperatures from Africa and through the Caribbean. These warmer than average temperatures have extended as far as the Gulf of Mexico.

For instance, temperature readings in the Gulf have trended 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year. Readings near the Equatorial Atlantic are approaching record levels, helping to fuel a more robust amount of storms.

With sea surface temperatures not expected to cool, the stage could be set for greater tropical development in the early part of the season.

Could Next Week Spell Trouble?

Looking ahead to next week, forecasters are keeping an eye on a tropical wave that is expected to move to the west from the coast of Africa. Because it is early in the season, the wave will not encounter exceedingly favorable conditions to intensify.

This means that it will need to latch onto a significant amount of moisture and encounter little wind shear in order to survive and thrive in the open ocean waters of the south-central Atlantic.

The wave may find these ingredients as it heads toward the Leeward and Windward Islands and into the Caribbean by the end of next week. While some dry air may stymie its growth over the next few days, it could strengthen later in the week if it is able to remain intact along its journey. This is because wind shear is expected to weaken as the feature tracks to the west.

Forecasters raised the risk of a tropical wave taking root to a medium level when the latest models came in late Thursday. The wave will need to circulate in an area that is south of 15 degrees north latitude in order to find the most favorable conditions to grow. The next storm name up on the Atlantic list is Bret.

Latest on the the Central America Gyre

The Central America Gyre is forecast to continue to take on new pockets of moisture in the coming days, fueling the development of thunderstorms. Hurricane experts have noted that an increase in the amount of storms brewing in the western Caribbean to end this week is a signal that the gyre is picking up steam.

This increasing influence could lead to more tropical activity across the western Caribbean heading into the early part of next week. The latest models indicate the chance of a group of rain showers and storms that would likely move in a northward direction.

Update on Eastern Pacific

Despite getting its official start on May 15, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season has been calm and quiet. Any potential activity in the next few weeks will likely move to the west and away from any populated land masses. However, the shipping industry that relies on the Panama Canal could be impacted by potential development.

The Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. have been under the gun for severe weather over the last several days. Meteorologists are warning that the same disturbances responsible for this severe weather could move off into the Gulf of Mexico and intensify into a tropical system.

The greatest inhibitor to development off of the coast will be the strong amount of wind shear currently in place in this region of the basin.

However, warm water temperatures will serve to fuel this development, particularly along the Gulf Stream that is located along the Atlantic coastal areas and through the Caribbean current that stretches into the Gulf of Mexico.

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