More Stormy Weather on Tap for the South-Central and Southeastern U.S.

Posted: January 20, 2023 5:43 pm

Colder Air Forecast to Lower Severe Weather Risk to Close Out the Month

You should pack an umbrella and a jacket if you are headed out in the south-central and southeastern portions of the U.S. this weekend. The first of two storms is set to unleash rain and isolated severe thunderstorms to a significant part of this region. Here is what you need to know ahead of the weekend.

Timing of Two Storms

The first in the pair of storms will fire up on Saturday across portions of interstates 10 and 20. It could be a rainy afternoon and evening for an area stretching from Texas into the Florida Panhandle, including the cities of Dallas, Austin, Houston, New Orleans, and Mobile.

The dynamic system will pull in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it tracks to the northeast. This will put areas farther in this direction in the line of fire for heavy rain late Saturday and into Sunday. For instance, it could be a wet start to Sunday for areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. This is also the time frame where residents can expect the possibility of severe thunderstorms that trigger flash flooding and damaging winds.

Areas to the north encompassing the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys will experience a lighter rainfall throughout the weekend. Meanwhile, about 1 – 2 inches of rain is forecast for portions of southern Alabama and up through Georgia and the Carolina coast.

Travel disruptions may be on the docket due to ponding on highways and urban flooding. There is also the chance of fog on Sunday which could create delays at airports in the Southeast.

What About the Second Storm?

Forecasters are predicting that the second of the two storms will pack more of a punch. Predicted to arrive on Tuesday or Wednesday, this will be a more widespread rain event with a greater chance of severe storms. Because the rain is predicted to fall across the same general area of the first weather maker, it is also more likely that the second event will trigger more flash flooding because the grounds are already saturated.

This storm will also deliver rain to a greater area, stretching as far north as the middle Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys and as far east as the coastal areas of Virginia. Additionally, this system will be stronger than its predecessor with a higher risk of isolated tornadoes, particularly on Tuesday along the Gulf Coast.

Weather experts are also cautioning that the threat of tornadic activity may move as far north as Tennessee and as far east as the Carolinas and northern Florida by Wednesday. Be sure to stay tuned to the developing forecast if you live in this part of the country.

The duo of storms is a continuation of the rash of severe weather that has impacted the Gulf Coast, the Tennessee Valley, and the southern fringe of the Appalachians this winter. The most recent severe weather event killed at least nine people last week.

Why So Much Severe Weather?

Part of the blame for the higher incidence of severe weather across the southern half of the U.S. can be attributed to temperatures that have been trending warmer than average. The water in the Gulf of Mexico is also running about 2 – 5 degrees above normal January readings, providing more fuel for thunderstorm development.

Following the departure of this week’s severe weather, a mass of colder air will move into the central and eastern portions of the nation. This more seasonable weather will likely lower the risk of severe weather for the rest of the month. There is no doubt that the region could use a breather before the typically busy spring storm season fires up in earnest.

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