More Tropical Weather Brewing in the Central Atlantic Ocean

Posted: October 17, 2023 3:00 pm

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are predicting that a tropical wave coming off the coast of west Africa will develop into an organized storm in the coming days. Here is the latest on what is likely to become Tropical Storm Tammy in the Atlantic basin.

Tammy Would Become 19th Named Storm of the 2023 Season

Should this developing system intensify into a named feature, it will carry the distinction of being the 19th named system of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The feature is currently coming together as a cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms across the central portions of the Atlantic.

The NHC has designated the wave with the name Invest 94L. The system is forecast to shift to the west across the central Atlantic this week, becoming stronger and more organized as it does so. The greatest chance of this storm taking on official characteristics will be between the dates of October 18 and 20.

Should this prediction of a named storm developing come to fruition, the system would be called Tammy. This will leave only two names left on the predetermined list. In the event that this list becomes exhausted by the time the season wraps up, an alternate list designated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will be used.

The current steering winds in the Atlantic will likely move this feature to the west this week. This track will follow a similar journey of last week’s Tropical Storm Sean. Forecasters are predicting that an area of high pressure entrenched over the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean will influence this steering flow to the south. The precise position of this area of high pressure will influence if the feature remains in the south taking aim at the Lesser Antilles or if it moves to the north and stays out in the open seas.

This means that there is a chance that the islands of the Lesser Antilles will take the brunt of the impacts of what could end up being Tropical Storm Tammy. The greatest chance of impacts would be later this week and into the weekend.

Recapping the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It has been a busier than usual Atlantic hurricane season with about six weeks to go until its official end on November 30. This season has brought 18 named storms, well above the historical average of 14 named features in the Atlantic basin.

Of these named storms, six have developed into hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes eventually intensified into major hurricanes, a designation defined by the NHC as a Category 3 or higher. This means that the storm packed sustained winds of 111 mph or higher at some point in its life cycle.

Hurricane Lee is still the strongest hurricane of the 2023 season, hitting a Category 5 designation as it moved over the central Atlantic with winds of 165 mph. Lee took a long journey through the Atlantic before finally making landfall on September 16 as a mere tropical wind and rainstorm in the western coastal areas of Nova Scotia of Maritime Canada. What was left of Hurricane Lee brought significant amounts of rain and winds to Atlantic Canada and down into New England after moving onshore.

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