Nor’easter Forecast to Brew Off East Coast by Weekend

Posted: October 16, 2023 3:32 pm

A nor’easter is forecast to potentially take shape off the East Coast this week, bringing yet another round of rain and wind to the region. When will the inclement conditions develop and how bad will it get? Read on for all of the details.

What is Left of Typhoon Bolaven Will Set Stage for More Storms for the East

The Northeast has been in a pattern of washout weekends this fall, complicating plans to get outside and partake in trips to the pumpkin patch, the apple orchard, and to football games. That pattern is set to continue as forecasters warn that a potent storm system is predicted to develop along the East Coast by the weekend, possibly reaching the status of a powerful nor’easter.

The remnants of Super Typhoon Bolaven will lay the groundwork for this stormy weather pattern. This typhoon moved across the northern Pacific last week before entering the Gulf of Alaska. While the system has now been downgraded to a non-tropical storm, it is still packing a significant amount of rain and wind

A southward dip in the jet stream is forecast to form across the eastern half of the U.S. late this week and into the weekend. This will pave the way for a storm to pop up in connection with a cold front moving from the Midwest and into the south-central U.S. late in the week. This storm system will intensify and bring in more moisture as it moves to the east.

The forecast is calling for a large area of rain to develop in the Great Lakes and into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the southern Appalachians on Friday. Areas to the south, including Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, and the Carolinas, will see the chance of thunderstorms. The energy from this weather maker will provide the necessary ingredients for a coastal storm to develop off the Carolinas.

The storm system will likely strengthen to a great degree as it journeys to the north up the coast late Saturday and into Sunday. It is this system that could take on characteristics of a typical nor’easter as it moves into the Northeast and New England.

Potential impacts of this system include heavy rain, high winds, and coastal hazards. It is still too early to determine what parts of the Northeast and Atlantic Canada will see the greatest impacts.

Another Dreary Weekend a Likelihood

Unfortunately for those tired of the dreary weather in the Northeast and beyond, the weekend is shaping up to be a repeat of what has been happening all fall once Friday and Saturday roll around. For instance, New York City has seen measurable rainfall on 10 of the last 12 weekend days. You have to go all the way back to Labor Day weekend to find a stretch of dry weather on a Saturday and Sunday.

Both New York City and Boston have recorded approximately 175% of the historical average of rainfall since the beginning of July. It has been even wetter in areas to the north, including the northern reaches of New England and into Atlantic Canada.

In addition to the rain, snow may fall over portions of Quebec and eaten Ontario by late in the weekend.

Travel Disruptions and Coastal Hazards a Good Possibility

Travelers will want to keep an eye on this developing forecast. Airline delays and cancellations could be an issue beginning late in the week. Road conditions will also likely be negatively impacted due to the risk of flash flooding. The winds will also likely bring down what is left of the changing leaves, creating clogged storm drains that exacerbate the risk of flash flooding.

Coastal flooding may also be an issue for portions of New England as high waves wash up on shore. The good news is that the storm will not likely hit during a time of high astronomical tides.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is also monitoring the potential of a new tropical system in the central Atlantic. While this feature is predicted to remain well to the east of the U.S. coastline, the moisture and winds associated with it could be pulled into the Northeast and beyond.

The Southeast will enjoy an infusion of drier air on Saturday as the storm continues to chug to the north. These moderate conditions will hit the central portions of the Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic by Sunday.

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