Odds of a White Christmas Shrinking in the Northeast as Snow Drought Continues

Posted: December 15, 2023 12:01 pm

Those dreaming of a white Christmas in the Northeast are not likely to see their wish come true. This corner of the U.S. is now nearing 700 days of no measurable snow, a streak that is likely to hang on a bit longer. Here is what forecasters are predicting for when the region will see a measurable snowfall event.

Snow Drought Closing in on 700 Days for Most of Interstate 95 Corridor

Major cities that have not seen plowable snow in almost two years include Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, Baltimore, and New York City. This snow drought is likely to end this winter but it may take awhile longer for the flakes to start flying.

This winter season is starting off where last year left off with little to no snow accumulation in the Northeast. Of the major metropolitan areas that dot the Interstate 95 corridor, only Boston has seen measurable snow with 0.2 of an inch. The rest of the corridor has seen just a few flurries at best.

You have to go back to early 2022 to find records of more than an inch of snow in the other major cities in the Northeast. Even in normally snowy Boston, it was the middle of February 2023 when over an inch of snow fell across the city.

Why is it Not Snowing?

While it has been sufficiently cold at times and while there has been ample amounts of moisture, the two weather elements have not come together to create the conditions necessary to create snowfall. This has translated to mostly rain throughout the Interstate 95 corridor while the bulk of the snow has landed much farther inland.

How bad was the snow drought last year? Baltimore saw its least amount of snow on record when it recorded just 0.2 of an inch. The typical average for the city over a winter season is 21.1 inches, pointing to the anomaly that was the 2022 – 2023 season. Likewise, Philadelphia also only recorded 0.2 of an inch, tying a record for the second smallest amount of snow in the City of Brotherly Love.

When Will the Flakes Finally Begin to Fly?

Forecasters are predicting that the Northeast will get a shot at meaningful snow eventually but it may take until the second half of the winter season for all of the right pieces of the puzzle to fall into place. The odds of snow are forecast to increase during the second half of January and into early February as an El Niño climate phase becomes more entrenched in the region.

During a typical El Niño weather pattern, a more southerly storm track equates to more frequent chances of major storms coming up from the Gulf of Mexico. Even though more moisture is expected in the Northeast this year when compared to last season, forecasters are also predicting temperatures that trend slightly warmer than the historical average. This could mean that much of the precipitation will fall as rain or sleet rather than snow.

Will the Northeast See a White Christmas?

Only time will tell when and to what degree of intensity the Northeast will break the current snow drought. However, meteorologists are relatively certain that there will be little to no chance of a white Christmas for the area. With the exception of a few isolated pockets in the interior portions of the Northeast, the temperatures are not likely to support snow development moving closer to the coast and the Interstate 95 corridor.

Meteorologists consider it a white Christmas if there is a minimum of one inch of measurable snow on the ground. Note that this does not mean that it needs to actually snow on Christmas Day to meet this criteria.

For instance, while the long-range forecast is showing a shot of moisture for New York City right around Christmas Day, temperatures are predicted to remain in the upper 40s and potentially even hitting 50 degrees.

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