
Heavy Rain, Flooding, and Chance of Severe Weather Staring Down the Southern U.S.
January 22, 2024
Posted: December 14, 2021 11:04 am
The death toll from the massive tornado outbreak late last week is well north of at least 70 people in Kentucky alone. According to Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, over 100 people are also still unaccounted for. Beshear noted that the state expects the death toll to rise in the coming days as search and rescue efforts continue across the region.
In addition to the fatalities in Kentucky, there were another 14 deaths reported in Illinois, Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennessee. Current estimates put the total cost of damage and economic impact at about $18 billion. This figure encompasses home and business damage, lost wages, infrastructure damage, and school closures.
There were at least 33 confirmed twisters that spun up late Friday after the sun had gone down. The tornados cut a path of destruction over 200 miles long that spanned four states. The event will go down as one of the worst tornadic outbreaks in US history.
The small town of Mayfield suffered the worst of the damage as the tornado cut through the heart of the area. Located in the western part of Kentucky, this town of approximately 10,000 is currently experiencing widespread power outages to about 5,000 customers. In addition, over 10,000 homes and businesses have no water service with another 17,000 under water boil advisories. The tornado destroyed the town’s infrastructure, including natural gas services and waste management.
In order to assist with the recovery efforts, Beshear announced the creation of an incident support base at Fort Campbell. The service will coordinate personnel and supply deployment to the region. President Joe Biden also officially declared a major federal disaster in Kentucky. This declaration triggers the release of federal aid.
While tornado outbreaks are not uncommon during the spring months for this region of the US, an outbreak of this magnitude is certainly out of the ordinary for the month of December. The Gulf Coast region may experience severe weather in December but it is rare that it reaches this far north and even rarer that the storms hit the type of intensity that was unleashed on Friday.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the three-year average for tornadoes in the US during December is just 47. What is rarer is that the twisters caused this degree of damage and loss of life. In general, December tornadoes tend to be tamer in nature.
So what were the reasons behind this massive outbreak? Meteorologists are pointing to the exceptionally warm weather this fall as one reason for the intensification of the severe weather that spurred the tornadic development.
Because of the warmer than average weather, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have also stayed above normal for December. This supported the movement of warm and moist air to the north, triggering the development of these tornadoes as the air met with a strong area of low pressure that was coming down from the Rocky Mountains. This low pressure was able to pull up the moisture-rich air from the Gulf and push it farther to the north.
The moisture from the Gulf, the rising cooler air, and the cold front all worked together to create wind shear in the atmosphere. The presence of all of these weather conditions combined to deliver the necessary ingredients for the formation of tornadoes during this unusual time of the year.
Forecasters are warning that more severe weather may be in the forecast for the middle of the week across the central US. A system that is coming over the Rockies from the West Coast will bring up warm air from the south. The clashing of the front and the warm air will once again raise the threat of severe weather outbreaks.
The biggest danger with this particular storm system will be strong wind gusts and thunderstorms. However, most experts are confident that it is unlikely that this weather pattern will spur on more tornadoes.
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