Portions of Mexico Under Tropical Storm Warnings

Posted: October 14, 2022 2:57 pm

Mexico is bracing for an anticipated Saturday landfall from Tropical Storm Karl. The storm has been meandering over the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico for the last few days, distinguished as the only current named storm of the Atlantic basin. Here is the latest on Karl and where it is expected to head next.

Karl’s Projected Path

Tropical Storm Karl sprung to life on Tuesday afternoon. While it neared hurricane status on Wednesday, it has since weakened slightly over the last 24 hours. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believe that Karl has already peaked in strength. However, that does not mean that it will spare Mexico some of its wrath in the coming days.

As of late Thursday, Tropical Storm Karl was boasting maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm was crawling to the south and southeast at a speed of 7 mph. The tropical-storm-force winds associated with Karl are extending out about 80 miles from the center.

Forecasters are predicting that Karl will come on shore east of Veracruz, Mexico near the port city of Coatzacoalcos some time in the early hours of Saturday. Because the storm is moving at such a slow speed, it will trigger exceptionally rough surf conditions for a long period of time up and down the coastline of the southwestern Gulf.

Tropical storm warnings are now in effect from Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen, stretching along the shores of the Bay of Campeche. The heaviest of the rainfall is expected to fall to the east of the eye of the storm. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 – 8 inches are forecast with this storm. Higher amounts are a potential along the coastal areas and the higher terrains moving inland.

Wind gusts of 40 – 60 mph are predicted with this storm. Winds of this magnitude will expand up to 100 miles from the area of landfall. Sporadic power outages and minor property damage is a possibility as a result of these winds.

There is also still a chance that Karl may devolve into a mere tropical depression or rainstorm prior to landfall. The storm will still bring significant rain even if it loses its tropical storm designation.

What is Next for the Tropics?

The tropics are likely to stay busy even after Karl dissipates. While the early part of the hurricane season tends to generate storms that come off the coast of Africa, this latter period of time is typically distinguished by what experts call “homegrown systems.”

This term refers to tropical features that form on their own closer to North and Central America. The most common places for development are near the Atlantic coast of the mainland U.S., the Caribbean Sea, and the southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.

It is more likely that tropical systems will develop in this part of the Atlantic as the jet stream dips to the south by the end of October. This is why forecasters will be closely monitoring the Caribbean for the potential of a homegrown system.

Tropical Storm Karl is a good example of how quickly tropical storms can intensify during this time of the year given the right environmental conditions. Karl simply formed from the energy that was left from Hurricane Julia.

The next three names on the official list of storms are Lisa, Martin, and Nicole.

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