Rain and Cooler Temperatures on the Way for the South-Central U.S.

Posted: November 8, 2023 9:00 am

Enjoy the record warmth in the south-central U.S. while you can. These unseasonably warm temperatures are about to slip away, pairing with a dose of heavy moisture to bring the week to a close. Here is what you can expect in this corner of the country over the next few days.

Another Day of Potentially Record-Breaking Warmth Before Weather Shifts

The southern U.S. has been the beneficiary of a significant warming trend this week. However, this is all about to change as a new storm system generates significant amounts of moisture while bringing in much cooler temperature readings to the region. The rain will fall across a large swath of land, stretching from Texas and into the Tennessee Valley, bringing the risk of flash flooding to low-lying areas.

Before the rain arrives, the region will continue to experience record-breaking temperatures and dry conditions. The warmth is being credited to an area of high pressure currently anchored over the Gulf Coast. However, this zone of high pressure is expected to move to the east and eventually out to sea beginning Wednesday, paving the way for a more unsettled weather pattern to take root.

How warm will it get? The mercury will climb to levels about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the beginning of November through Wednesday across the southeastern U.S. and up into the Tennessee Valley. Cities that could see daily records fall include Nashville and Charlotte.

You can expect readings to inch up into the 70s and 80s. It will be particularly warm in Nashville with the temperature forecast to shatter the daily high record by a few degrees on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The soaring temperatures will reach as far east as West Virginia, as far north as the Plains states, and as far south as the Gulf Coast. This will translate to the potential of new record highs for communities in New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma.

While the warm temperatures is a welcome pattern for most people hoping to delay the start of winter, this warmth has also been accompanied by exceptionally dry conditions. The dry weather has triggered a number of wildfires in the southern U.S.

Active Weather Pattern on the Horizon

Forecasters are predicting that a portion of the jet stream will break off and dip to the south later in the week, delivering consistent moisture for the southern part of the country. The first major storm will erupt across Texas on Thursday, bringing up substantial moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as fuel.

This storm will be preceded by the arrival of gusty winds beginning Tuesday in the Four Corners region of northern Arizona, southern Utah, the southwestern corner of Colorado, and the northern tier of New Mexico. Top gusts will hit up to 45 mph in this area as the day progresses. The strong winds, ongoing drought conditions, and low humidity levels will lead to a higher risk of wildfire development.

Rain will tamper the development of fires late Wednesday and into Thursday in Texas before the moisture creeps into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee as the front moves in an easterly direction heading into Friday. You can expect rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches in an area stretching from southern Texas and into Louisiana and Arkansas.

Localized rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches is a possibility in the heaviest hit areas of southern Texas and western Louisiana. Residents in this zone should be prepared for travel delays and the possibility of urban flooding.

How Much Relief from the Drought to Expect

There is no doubt that this part of the U.S. could use this shot of moisture. According to the last report out of the U.S. Drought Monitor, some areas of south-central Texas are still dealing with levels of extreme drought. Meanwhile, pockets of southern and central Louisiana are under the designation of an exceptional drought, the highest level as categorized by the agency.

Unfortunately, this upcoming weather system is not predicted to provide significant relief to the sinking water levels in the Mississippi River. While the late-week rain event will provide a small boost to the river’s water supply, more than this is needed to reverse the ongoing issues in the lower Mississippi River.

The precipitation will then track farther eastward, reaching the southern Appalachians by the weekend. The Southeast will likely just see a few isolated rain showers out of this weather maker, keeping its dry streak largely intact for the next few days.

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