Report Details What Part of U.S. Will be Most Risk of Hurricanes in the Future

Posted: March 3, 2023 11:00 pm

You are not imagining it if it feels like hurricanes are becoming more prevalent and more dangerous. Scientific research is proving that the impacts of climate change are making these storms stronger and faster, causing more damage than ever before.

A new report is shedding light on what areas of the U.S. can expect to see the greatest threat of hurricanes in the coming years. Is your area in the line of the fire? Read on for all of the details of this report.

Florida and Gulf Coast Continue to be Ground Zero for Hurricane Strikes

The latest report comes from the nonprofit organization known as First Street Foundation. The data details how the financial loss incurred by hurricanes is likely to increase in areas not always connected to a high prevalence of hurricanes.

The analysis from First Street looks at the next three decades, corresponding to the average life of a home mortgage, to give homebuyers a better idea about where you will see the highest risk of these monster storm events. Not surprisingly, the data detailed that Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast will continue to see the greatest impact from hurricanes.

The data shows that all of the top 20 U.S. cities that bear the burden of having the highest chance of being hit with a hurricane are located in Florida. However, not all of the regions that face this threat are in the Sunshine State. For example, New York City is expected to see the biggest percentage increase on the list when it comes to average annual losses for homeowners due to hurricanes.

Next on the list is the mid-Atlantic city of Newport News, Virginia. A few cities in the Southeast, such as Charleston, were also noted for the predicted increase in monetary costs due to hurricanes.

It is clear that hurricanes are traveling farther to the north than they have in the past. At the same time that they are undergoing this migration, they are also becoming stronger in nature. Lastly, these storms are moving farther inland than they have historically, increasing the risks to millions of more Americans that may have thought they were safe because their home was not located right along the coast.

Climate Change Blamed for Stronger Storms

While climate change is not necessarily responsible for a higher amount of hurricanes, these human-caused impacts could be to blame for storms that are stronger and more destructive. The warmer ocean waters provide the fuel for these storms to intensify once they take root.

For instance, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that the probability of a hurricane that forms in the North Atlantic growing into a storm of a Category 3 or higher has gone from just 10% in the 1980s to about 40% today. There are also higher odds that a storm of this category or higher will remain a major hurricane at landfall. The risks to others become more exponential because the storms are able to remain intact longer after making landfall.

The other complicating factor of hurricane trends moving farther northward is that these communities may not be as prepared for these strikes. While hurricane-prone cities such as Miami may be fortified against these weather threats, other communities may not be as lucky.

Mid-Atlantic Under the Gun for More Hurricane Activity

The report found that the greatest increase in wind speeds is predicted to land around the border between South Carolina and Georgia over the next 30 years. Although this part of the Atlantic coastline has seen its fair share of hurricane activity over the years, it has not had a major hit since the late 80s.

This is because this part of the coastline bends in a way that protects it from hurricane landfalls. Storms that get their start in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean Sea are more likely to strike Florida and weaken before making their way up the Atlantic coastline.

However, the latest hurricane models suggested that this could change if more storms form and intensify farther to the north in the Atlantic Ocean. A trend of more storms developing in this part of the Atlantic will almost certainly increase the risk of direct strikes to the mid-Atlantic and areas to the north. This could be a problem for communities that are not as resilient to hurricanes.

Insurance companies are warning that homeowners should look at predictive trends as well as historical data when assessing the risks that hurricanes pose to their homes. Many hurricane models only look at past statistics. These models do not necessarily account for how climate change has altered the trajectory and intensity of these tropical weather events in more recent years. Understanding the full scope of the risk in your area will help you to make smarter home purchasing decisions.

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