Several Days of Rain in Store for Much of Florida Over Christmas Week

Posted: December 26, 2023 9:21 am

Vacationers heading to Florida hoping to catch some fun in the sun during the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day might end up disappointed. The Sunshine State is forecast to see a soggy few days, threatening to damper the vacation plans of many people seeking warmth and sunny skies. Here is what you need to know about the upcoming forecast for Florida.

Stationary Frontal Boundary Translates to Soggy Forecast for Florida

A period of unsettled weather is on tap for Florida as a frontal boundary will refuse to budge and move out of the region. Numerous bouts of moisture are forecast to push over the peninsula throughout Christmas, spelling a wet end to the last week of the year.

Meteorologists are predicting at least two different rounds of rain for Florida in the coming week. The first round arrived in the state on Christmas Day, ending what has been a relatively tranquil stretch of weather heading into the holidays. This initial shot of rain is part of the system that dumped flooding rainfall across Southern California during the middle of last week.

After pounding parts of the Plains and the Mississippi Valley over the weekend, the rain tracked into Florida just in time for Christmas Day. Like the previous regions that it impacted, this storm system was expected to raise the risk of localized flooding on the holiday.

The rain coming in from the west will meet up with an additional stream of moisture filtering up from the Gulf of Mexico, creating the potential of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain for Florida. Some parts of the state could see up to two inches of rain out of this first weather maker.

Florida Panhandle in Crosshairs for Heavy Rain

The Florida Panhandle was hit particularly hard on Monday. This includes Pensacola, Apalachicola, Panama City, and Tallahassee. The atmospheric conditions swirling over this corner of the state was also be likely to fuel some thunderstorm cells.

This mass of moisture will continue to move across the peninsula throughout the day Monday, bringing rain to the theme park mecca of Orlando, the beaches of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg, and up into Jacksonville. Although the rain is not likely to be as heavy as what the panhandle saw earlier in the day, it will still be enough to put an end to some outdoor plans.

The second round of rain will mostly spare the panhandle, making this the place to be for the rest of the week if you are counting on dry conditions. However, the stubborn frontal boundary will translate to unseasonably cool temperatures and cloudy skies. For instance, Pensacola will struggle to get out of the 50s and 60s and highs for the foreseeable future.

Cooler Air Filtering Into Central Florida

A frontal boundary is forecast to remain stationary across the central portion of the peninsula, triggering the risk of scattered rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in places such as Orlando. The Magic City is expecting rain showers through at least the middle of the week with highs in the mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday and dropping into the mid 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.

It will be even chillier by Friday with a forecast high of just 61 degrees. The good news is that drier conditions will accompany the falling temperatures, helping to at least make it feel a bit warmer.

The forecast for South Florida is a little less certain. That said, meteorologists expected a dry Christmas Day for cities such as Miami before rain makes an appearance beginning on Tuesday. The rain in this part of the state will be more sporadic in nature when compared to the panhandle and Central Florida.

South Florida has been no stranger to extreme surges of rainfall this year. Fort Lauderdale has seen the worst of this heavy rain at various times this year, helping to make 2023 the wettest year on the record books for this coastal city.

The driest part of Florida this week is expected to be up and down the Gulf Coast from Tampa Bay and down into Naples. This is the area of the state that missed out on the bulk of the tropical moisture this past hurricane season, putting it into the category of an extreme drought as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Naples has been especially dry this year, only recording about half of its usual rainfall amount through the third week of December.

While Naples will see some light rain this week, it still will not be enough to pull it out of the drought. The wettest days of the week for this Southwest Florida city will be Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential of the rain showers lingering through the early part of Thursday.

Many Americans will descend upon Florida this week for the college bowl game scene. Most of the games will be contested in indoor stadiums. However, the Pop Tarts Bowl scheduled for Thursday evening at Camping World Stadium in Orlando could be a wet affair for fans of Kansas State and North Carolina. Be sure to pack your rain gear if you are headed to Central Florida for this matchup.

Looking ahead to next week, the front that has been stationed over Florida will finally begin to move out by Thursday or Friday. A mass of drier air will push in behind the frontal boundary, ushering in more sunshine. Unfortunately, this weather pattern will also include cooler temperatures not conducive for beach goers. By the time that the mercury starts to creep up again, more rain could be in the forecast.

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