Severe Weather on Tap for the South and the Midwest

Posted: February 15, 2023 11:50 am

It is setting up to be a stormy few days in a large area stretching from the Gulf Coast and up through the Great Lakes, beginning late Wednesday and lasting through Thursday. Are you one of the 40 million Americans at risk of seeing severe weather during this time period? Here is the latest on the developing forecast.

Strong Winds, Torrential Hail, and Tornadoes in Forecast

Forecasters are predicting that the storms will ignite Wednesday afternoon, bringing along the threat of tornadoes, strong winds, and more. The line of storms will be fueled by a powerful jet stream that mixes with the warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. The severe weather will be a continuation of what the south-central U.S. experienced on Tuesday.

Although the day will start calm throughout much of the region, clouds will begin to build throughout Wednesday as a powerful storm system comes down from the Rockies and through the southern Plains. The jet stream colliding with the moisture from the Gulf will set the stage for storm development Wednesday evening.

It will look more like a typical spring or summer storm as clouds start to form and use the daytime sunshine as fuel. You can expect the weather to develop in parts of northern Texas before creeping to the north and the east.

The building wind shear will create rotation within the storm cells, triggering the formation of damaging winds, heavy rain, and hail. There is also the chance of tornadic activity within these storm cells.

As the sun sets Wednesday, severe storms will be the norm for the lower part of the Mississippi Valley, including a large portion of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. By Thursday, the risk of unsettled weather will expand into the Great Lakes.

Travel Disruptions Likely

While these storms will certainly cause some disruptions to normal life, forecasters are not expecting them to have the same devastating impacts as some of the previous severe weather outbreaks that the same area has seen this winter. However, residents in the line of fire should be ready for strong winds that could bring down trees and power lines. Ground that has been overly saturated by all of the recent storms will make this more likely.

There is also a good chance of airline delays as the storms impact hubs in cities such as Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Nashville. Be sure to check the status of your flight if you have plans traveling through these major hubs.

Winds will top out at about 60 to 70 mph. Multiple rounds of heavy rain may also raise the risk of reduced visibility on roadways as well as flash flooding in urban areas.

Isolated Storms Still Possible on Friday

The cold front that is set to power these storms will move out to the Atlantic coast by Friday, ending the greatest risk of additional storms across the Gulf Coast and northward. However, isolated storms may fire up along the Eastern Seaboard to bring the work week to a close.

These storms could catch people off guard since this is such an odd time of the year to experience this type of weather. Friday’s weather along the East Coast could feature gusty winds and torrential rain. Travel may be hampered up and down the coast in both the air and on the roads.

Stormy Start to New Year

2023 has already distinguished itself as a particularly stormy year. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there have been nearly 800 incidents of severe weather. This includes 168 preliminary reports of tornadoes, primarily in the southern portion of the U.S.

While the final report for January’s tornadic activity has not been finalized, it is likely that the month will go down as the second most active for twisters. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), January 1999 currently leads the list with 219 confirmed tornadoes.

Scientists are pointing to sea surface temperatures trending above normal in the Gulf of Mexico as a reason for the increased amount of severe weather so far this year.

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