Severe Weather Possible for Large Swath of Central States Later This Weekend

Posted: October 23, 2021 9:51 am

The energy coming from the bomb cyclone that is set to pound the West Coast this weekend will make its way to the central US later in the weekend, setting the stage for a possible severe weather outbreak.

Western Kansas to See the First Possibility of Severe Weather

The first round of severe weather will likely fire up in western Kansas as soon as Saturday evening. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in this part of the Plains, triggering the possibility of rain and thunderstorms. The entire weather pattern will be influenced by the train of moisture and storms that are ready to dump inches of rain and loads of snow throughout the West Coast in the coming days.

The mass of warm air coming in from the south meeting with the energy from the west will be the impetus for the first line of thunderstorms late Saturday. This will most likely develop along the frontal boundary of the warm and cool air in the western reaches of Kansas. The strongest storms may deliver hail to some parts of Kansas and Missouri.

Sunday Height of Activity

The height of the activity will likely take place on Sunday. As the low-pressure area begins to strengthen, the rain and thunderstorm activity will begin to pick up across areas of South Dakota and the southern tier of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. This line of storms will produce locally heavy rain and the chance of severe thunderstorms.

The activity will likely begin on Sunday afternoon and will continue through the overnight hours. In addition to the rain, the line of storms may also produce hail and isolated tornadoes.

Who is Most at Risk?

According to the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there are over 7.6 million residents living in the area forecast to be under at least an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday. In addition, almost 30 million residents of the central US are under the gun for some type of severe weather throughout the weekend.

The cities that are predicted to see the worst of the weather include St. Louis and Little Rock. Many of these storms are predicted to happen during the overnight hours when most people are asleep. This makes it important that residents have an alert system set up in case they need to seek cover.

Active Weather to the North


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Just to the north of this frontal boundary, a cold and persistent rain will begin late Saturday and continue for at least 24 hours. The swath of land most likely to see this chilly precipitation includes the northern parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. Forecasters predict rainfall amounts between one to three inches by the time the system pushes to the east on Monday.

The temperature may drop enough that some heavy and wet snowflakes mix with the rain late Sunday. This is most likely in southeastern Minnesota, northwest Illinois, northeastern Iowa, and southwestern Wisconsin.

This system will move eastward on Monday, bringing the threat of severe weather to the central and southern Appalachians. The storms might eventually make their way to the Atlantic coast later in the week.