Spring Thaw Triggers Flooding Concerns Across North-Central U.S.

Posted: April 18, 2023 2:00 pm

A flooding event is unfolding across the upper Mississippi River valley thanks to a massive amount of snowfall in the northern U.S. this winter paired with the dramatic warmup in temperatures over the last few weeks.

More snow on the way for the spring at times will make the situation worse, delivering an unstoppable force of Mother Nature.

Record Snow Sets Stage for Spring Thaw

It was a record snow season for many parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. For instance, Minneapolis recorded its third-highest snow amount over the course of a winter when it saw over 90 inches of the white stuff. Duluth, Minnesota is closing in on the snowiest season ever.

All it needs is a bit more of the wintry precipitation to inch past the record amount of 135.4 inches set back in 1995 – 1996.

This snow had just been hanging around on the ground all winter. Temperatures soaring into the 70s and 80s across a large portion of the north-central U.S. triggered this rapid snowmelt.

Snow cover in this part of the country encompasses between 5 to 15 inches of water, making it easy to see how the runoff can quickly overwhelm streams and secondary rives as it flows down into the major rivers of the area.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is warning that major flooding will be an issue across the Red River of the North and all of its tributaries.

For instance, the Red River is predicted to reach major flood stage of 30 feet by the weekend. This river is forecast to continue to rise near Fargo, North Dakota through the end of the month.

Snow Over the Weekend and Rain This Week Creates Additional Issues

Just when you think winter was wrapping up, as much as 2 feet of snow came down over the past week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This snow will also quickly melt on the heels of a warming trend, adding more water to the overflowing waterways.

Another storm is on the horizon for the region beginning Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday. While this weather maker will only offer up rain, the amount of new water will help to accelerate the snowmelt, bringing 2 – 6 inches of runoff into streams and rivers.

Looking Back at Record Flooding

Although there is no doubt that flooding will indeed be an issue for this corner of the U.S. in the coming weeks, it is unlikely to be the worst flooding event on record. Weather historians point to the year 1965 as the most disastrous flooding event in recorded history.

During this year, the Mississippi River crested at nearly 18 feet in LaCrosse, Wisconsin. The mighty Mississippi hit 26.01 feet in the Twin Cities.

The latest projections forecast that the Mississippi will reach 15.3 feet at LaCrosse, good enough for fourth place on the record books. This crest is projected to happen this weekend.

The same forecast is projecting that the major flood crest of the Mississippi in St. Paul, Minnesota will land at 18.5 feet by early in the week. This level would land it as the highest level since March of 2019.

The good news is that communities have fortified these rivers with additional levees in recent years. This will help to contain the water better than has been the case in the past.

Disruptions Associated with Flooding

That said, significant flooding of some of the nation’s key agricultural fields located along the upper Mississippi River and the Red River of the North will be a near certainty. It could take weeks for the water to recede in these fields once it unleashes.

This would delay the primary planting season.

In addition, the flooding events could also disrupt shipping operations in the area, particularly along the Mississippi River from St. Paul to St. Louis. Train travel and road travel could also be impacted by high amounts of standing water.

The high waters will take time to make their way down into the confluence at the Ohio River. This means that the flooding stage will not likely happen for some time in parts of Iowa and Illinois.

However, this flooding stage is forecast to be less severe in nature across the lower Mississippi River unless the area continues to be inundated with more heavy rain.

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