The 2022-2023 Winter Weather Outlook

Posted: October 12, 2022 3:09 am

The winter season has come again to North America. Whether people love or hate it, they usually know what to expect weatherwise for their region. Yet, today, many people have concerns about what winter might look like this year because of a wide range of factors that have changed expectations, including climate change, conflict in Europe, industrial, transportation and travel pollution, severe storms and volcanic eruptions.

Early Snowfall in the Northeast

Although winter doesn’t officially begin in the Northern Hemisphere until December 21, 2022, the East Coast experienced low temperatures at the start of the second week of October. On Monday, October 10, frost advisories went out across the region. Maine had its first snowfall since last season. Meteorologists expect several cold fronts from Canada to move across central and eastern states and bring below-average temperatures between October 15 and 19.

That said, they’re not anticipating steady cold temps or snowfall in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic throughout winter. Instead, they’re expecting more winter-like weather during fall and severely fluctuating weather with warmer temperatures by the La Niña effect all winter.

With snowfall, they predict early snows followed by higher precipitation as rain mid-winter and then more snowfall near the end of the season. They also predict few lake-effect snowstorms from across the Great Lakes into Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York. The only region that might experience typical seasonal temperatures and weather is New England from coastal nor’easters during the first part of 2023.

How Technology Might End Snow Days

As a result of an increase in remote or distance learning prompted by the pandemic, students and teachers who previously enjoyed taking time off during snowstorms might not receive the benefit of any snowfall this winter. Across the Northeast, schools have created snow emergency schedules that now include remote learning as an alternative teaching option so that they don’t have to announce snow days at all.

Many students, teachers, parents and even some school administrators have started fighting these moves within their school districts. As a result, some school-district leaders have decided to ease into the idea or not even consider it for certain scenarios. For example, at least one district announced that remote learning isn’t a perfect solution and simply won’t work if the schools have little warning before a storm or other emergency.

What Is a La Niña Effect?

For the third year, cooler-than-average temperatures in the eastern and central part of the Pacific Ocean are expected to cause changes to all North America weather patterns because of their impact on the jet stream. La Niña results from high, strong winds moving warm waters too far into the Pacific Ocean in Asia, Australia, Indonesia or South America. The warm waters cause cool waters to rise to the surface.

In the last century, the U.S. has never experienced three consecutive years of La Niña impacting weather patterns. Meteorologists refer to this phenomenon as the “triple dip” La Niña. Although this is a natural climate influencer and cycle on a global scale, it rarely happens in this ways.

Its influence can make the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast overall warmer with an increase of abnormal lightning strikes along the Gulf Coast and a higher-than-average number of cyclones and hurricanes with greater strength along the East Coast. All Southern states, especially Southwestern ones, experience more dry weather. Northwestern states become colder and wetter and experience an increased risk of flooding. This year, experts believe that drought conditions will worsen in Central and Southern California and other southernmost regions until January 2023 in part because of the La Niña effect.

What About Volcanic Eruptions?

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), volcanoes and the debris, carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases they produce during an eruption can actually contribute to global warming.

Yet, they normally impact global climate less than human activities. In fact, humans typically produce 100 times more CO2 emissions than all global erupting volcanoes in total on a yearly basis. NASA compared CO2 levels from human activities to volcanic eruptions and found that the yearly rate is equal to one or more super volcano eruptions, which only happen once every 100,000 to 200,000 years. They also discovered that the damage caused by human activities can last a thousand years or longer.

In early 2022, a volcanic eruption surprised meteorologists and other experts by having a more significant impact on the weather than normal in a unique way: On Saturday, January 15, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai underwater volcano in the South Pacific erupted into the air and spewed ash, gases and water vapor into the stratosphere. Instead of experts at NASA and elsewhere having deep concerns about CO2, they faced a new challenge.

They estimated that the eruption added 5% extra water vapor to the stratosphere and impacted global temperatures by trapping warm air underneath it. This air adds to the impact from La Niña and might even strengthen and alter polar vortex activities.

What Is the Polar Vortex?

Every year, the central part of the country typically experiences a blast of cold from the north that comes from a pocket of freezing air that forms in winter from westerly winds circling the North Pole / Arctic Circle. When the stratosphere warms up, the change normally causes the polar vortex to stop moving in a westerly direction and slide south. Yet, warm temperatures below the stratosphere can actually strengthen the polar vortex’s position.

Experts now believe that warmer expected temperatures (3 degrees Fahrenheit or more in the U.S.) might strengthen the polar vortex this year. The Plains, which usually see cold, dry weather and a massive temperature drop in the Northern Plains by February, can expect warmer temps along with the overall states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas. If the polar vortex slides south, meteorologists believe that people living in the Central U.S., especially the Central and Southern Plains and close to the Rockies, might experience more unusually cold temperatures in February 2023 than in previous years.

What About the Southeast States?

Although La Niña can cause dry weather conditions, warm temperatures both in the air and in Atlantic coastal and Gulf of Mexico waters have many experts concerned about rare “perfect storm” scenarios. People in the Southeast should prepare for a lot of precipitation and flooding at different times through February. Based on last year’s weather, they should also prepare for the possibility of severe tornado events in December and unprecedented snowfalls in January and February.

These weather patterns are examples of severe fluctuating changes that can happen when natural and unnatural conditions combine in the same region. In 2021, dozens of tornadoes at a time wreaked havoc across Southern states.

Several of these states experienced unusual snowfalls in January of more than twice as much precipitation. Residents and visitors of Florida, Georgia and other Eastern states closer to the Gulf should be the most concerned about potential rare storms, especially if these regions experience abnormal ocean or other temperature shifts with little warning.

The Economic Impact of Severe Weather

Experts from various agencies and organizations all agree that it’s time for everyone to start to seriously think about where they live and how well they prepare for potential severe-weather events. Some areas of the country might become uninhabitable in a few years because of dangerous weather changes and the cost of cleanup and rebuilding after an event. The Office for Coastal Management at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has tracked 56 climate- and weather-related disasters from 2019 to 2021. The costs related to these disasters increase every year.

Experts at Moody’s RMS company made a preliminary estimate about the costs from last month’s Hurricane Ian, which was one of the top five storms to ever occur in the U.S. and the deadliest since 1935. They estimated that this hurricane will cost insurance companies at least $67 billion to cover wind and surge losses across Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) can expect at least a $10 billion loss. The bigger picture isn’t yet understood. More importantly, the personal and uninsured toll isn’t included in these numbers.

Some home and business owners might be unable to arrange insurance coverage where they live, especially now that insurers are debating providing coverage along coastlines at all because of warnings by meteorologists and other experts about the severe and costly impact of changing weather patterns and rising global temperatures and ocean waters.

Additionally, people face higher utility, food and other bills during severe cold, heat and precipitation events. Anyone who lives in a region that doesn’t normally experience extreme cold, for example, must invest in technologies they wouldn’t normally need to appropriately deal with sudden, unexpected freezing temps and snowstorms.

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