Tropical Moisture Forecast to Hit the East Coast Through the Weekend

Posted: September 22, 2023 9:00 am

Tropical moisture is set to unleash up and down the Eastern Seaboard as the week comes to a close. Will the weekend be a washout and when can you expect the rain to begin to pick up? Here is what you need to know about this powerful storm.

Is a New Named Storm on the Horizon?

The tropical rainfall will hit a number of major metropolitan areas this weekend, ruining outdoor plans and creating rough seas up and down the coast. There is also the chance that this system could intensify into a named storm as it takes on more tropical characteristics.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been warning about the possibility of a homegrown tropical weather system for days as a zone of low pressure develops in this part of the Atlantic. Should the system strengthen into a named storm, it will go by the name of Ophelia.

The most likely window of development will be Friday and into early Saturday. Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in this part of the Atlantic will help to support tropical weather growth, however, a good amount of wind shear could mitigate this development.

Regardless of if the area of low pressure becomes an organized tropical weather event, it will still bring significant impacts to much of the East Coast in the coming days. You will want to keep an eye on this development if you live in this part of the U.S.

Timing of Rain and Wind

The Carolinas will be the first region to see the rain pick up on Friday. This moisture will push to the north into southeastern Virginia and up through the Delmarva Peninsula by the afternoon hours. In addition to the heavy rain, the storm will also bring strong winds to the coastline.

The weather maker is predicted to pick up steam as it churns to the north. By Saturday, the rain will arrive in New York City and Boston. It has already been a soaker of a September for both of these cities. For instance, the Big Apple has recorded 125% of the historical average of rain in September already.

The most potent rain bands will be located to the north and east of the center of the storm. This will translate to heavy rain for southern New England, a part of the country that has also been under the gun for loads of moisture as of late because of Hurricane Lee.

Boston saw nearly 3 inches of rain out of Lee, nearly matching the average amount of rain it sees all through September. Another round of heavy rain will put the region at a serious risk of flash flooding this weekend. Grounds are already saturated and area waterways will be unable to take on much more water without overflowing.

Winds will also be an issue with this storm. Forecasters are warning that gusts up to 60 mph are on the table for the coastal areas. These winds will also generate rough surf conditions and strong rip currents for the beaches from the mid-Atlantic and up through New England. Coastal flooding is also a possibility.

You can expect widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches in a zone from eastern North Carolina and up through New England. The coastal areas will see the upper amounts of this range. The Delmarva Peninsula and North Carolina’s Outer Banks could see 4 to 8 inches by the time the storm exits to the north.

The amount of rain that will fall will depend on how quickly the storm moves. A system that stalls out will inevitably dump more moisture.

Impacts on Fall Foliage Viewing

This is the time of the year when leaf peepers start making plans to check out the fall foliage in New England and beyond. The constant barrage of storms and the rainy September could dull the vibrancy of the fall foliage season in the coming weeks.

The colors of these leaves tend to explode during times of dry conditions and plenty of sunshine. The rainy September could translate to less vibrant leaves.

The promising news is that drier weather is in store for the Northeast. A cooler air mass is forecast to move behind the storm system. This cool air will bring fall-like weather to the interior Northeast by Saturday. For instance, temperatures will plateau in the 60s for the upper reaches of New England for highs. It may hit the 70-degree mark in the interior portions of the Northeast but days in the 80s may be long gone.

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