Tropical Moisture Forecast to Impact Gulf Coast This Week

Posted: October 10, 2023 8:24 am

A large area of the southern U.S. stretching from Texas to Florida is in the line of fire for a surge of tropical moisture as the Gulf of Mexico comes to life with activity. Even if a named tropical feature does not form this week in this portion of the Atlantic basin, the Gulf Coast is likely to see several rounds of heavy rain. Here is a look at this forecast and what to expect if you live along this coastline.

Gulf of Mexico Experiences a Surge in Tropical Activity When Compared to Earlier in Season

The Gulf of Mexico has been relatively quiet this season compared to previous years. There have been 17 named storms so far in 2023 to form in the Atlantic basin, however, only three of these have impacted the Gulf. Tropical Storm Arline carries the distinction for the first named storm of the 2023 Atlantic season as well as the first to travel through the Gulf of Mexico, forming in early June.

Tropical Storm Harold was born in the middle of August in the Gulf, eventually making landfall along the coastline of southern Texas. Lastly, Hurricane Idalia picked up intensity in the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico in late August prior to crashing on shore along the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 3 monster.

This is typically the time of the year when tropical weather activity shifts from the eastern and central Atlantic basin to the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. While the temperatures of the water will support the development of tropical weather, an increase in wind shear across the western portion of the Gulf could limit further strengthening.

Hurricane experts have predicted a medium chance of tropical development in the waters of the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. This is the time period predicted to be most conducive to development due to a lower amount of wind shear. Increasing wind shear by the end of the week could limit the activity.

Any development is forecast to move to the northeast by the middle of the week, bringing in a good amount of moisture from both the East Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Lidia also is predicted to move across Mexico and back out into the Gulf, adding to this moisture level in the coming days.

Who Will See the Most Rain and How Much Will Fall?

The immense amount of moisture associated with the remnants of Lidia and any new storm system that forms in the Gulf will result is significant rainfall for the Gulf Coast. The forecast is calling for widespread rain showers and thunderstorms up and down the Gulf Coast from Texas and down into Southwest Florida. It is still too early to tell with certainty what part of the region will see the most rain out of this weather maker but the current models indicate it will target the central and eastern portions of the coastline.

The system is also forecast to bring multiple rounds of heavy downpours stretching over a time period of at least 12 hours. A general 1 – 2 inches of rain is in the forecast for an area from the border of Texas and Louisiana and up into South Carolina. The heaviest hit areas could see rainfall amounts of 3 – 4 inches by the time the rain moves through the region.

Forecasters are warning of a good chance of flash flooding along the Gulf Coast, a part of the nation that has been particularly dry as of late. The dry ground could have challenges absorbing water that comes down at a fast clip, triggering runoff and the potential of ponding and standing water on roadways.

Moisture Much-Needed in this Part of the Gulf Coast

According to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, parts of Texas and Louisiana are under the designation of an exceptional drought. A whopping 58% of Louisiana is under this designation, the highest category used by the Drought Monitor. The ongoing drought has caused a number of problems for the region, including dangerously low water levels for the Lower Mississippi River.

The silver lining of the soggy forecast is that the increase in moisture could help to replenish the water levels in the Mississippi River Delta, pushing away the intrusion of saltwater into the river from the Gulf.

A secondary storm that is gearing up across the central U.S. will provide another opportunity for the river basin to pick up crucial water this week. While neither of these storms will reverse the ongoing issues caused by the drought, every little bit of moisture will help the situation.

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